Aggregates commodity positioning, cycle momentum proxies, and metals-led demand signals to assess the current global growth and economic cycle regime.

Global Growth and Economic Cycle

Regime Assessment:

Regime: Transitional / Fragile Balance
Regime Confidence Index: Medium Confidence
Stability: Fragile

Why This Regime:

The regime is primarily driven by strong underlying demand for key industrial metals, alongside elevated positioning tensions. The Energy-Adjusted Metals Tailwind signal for copper indicates significant copper-specific demand (8). Palladium futures show hedgers deeply short while speculators build long positions, suggesting potential for appreciation (4). Silver also exhibits extreme speculative shorting against deep hedger long positions, creating high tension (2).
Dynamic weighting prioritized these signals due to their high aggregation weight, high confidence, and cyclical time horizon. The copper demand signal had an extreme conviction band (8).
Signals for Platinum (3), Copper CoT (5), and Crude Oil CoT (7) were downweighted. This was due to low conviction, mixed interpretation confidence, and internal conflict flags. The Crude Oil signal was further de-emphasized due to critical data inconsistencies (7).

Alignment & Tensions:

Signals align on underlying demand for industrial metals. The copper tailwind is strong (8). Palladium's positioning indicates potential for upside as hedgers are deeply short against speculative long building (4). Positive flow momentum in the Rates sector also supports an improving sentiment backdrop (9).
Tensions exist in precious metals positioning. Gold CoT shows extreme hedger long positions, but speculative long unwinding creates internal conflict (1). Silver CoT highlights an extreme speculative short position contrasting with a deep hedger long, indicating significant divergence and tension (2). Copper CoT also signals bearish reversal risk from hedger shorting and speculative long reduction (5). Platinum shows a bearish drift from positioning despite recent price strength (3).
Tensions do not overturn the regime call as the highest-weighted and most confident signals point to robust underlying demand and potential for appreciation in key industrial metals. The conflicts are largely tactical positioning dynamics rather than a fundamental shift in demand.

Scenario Balance:

Dominant scenario: Markets maintain a fragile balance. Underlying demand supports industrial metals, but positioning tensions create volatility. Prices may consolidate or experience modest appreciation.
Primary upside risk: A renewed surge in speculative buying, especially short covering in Silver (2) and Palladium (4), could amplify demand-led strength, pushing prices higher.
Primary downside risk: A sharp, broad-based speculative liquidation in metals, particularly if hedger sentiment in Palladium or Silver reverses, could trigger a significant price correction.

What Would Change the Regime:

A sustained decline in the Copper Energy-Adjusted Metals Tailwind z-score below -0.75 (8).
A material and sustained shift in hedger positioning in Palladium (4) or Silver (2) from extreme long/short to neutral or opposing positions.
A consistent, broad-based deterioration in speculative flows across industrial metals, combined with declining flow momentum in the Rates sector (9).

Inputs

Gold Individual Market Analysis

Signal Summary:

Gold positioning shows underlying support from extreme hedger long positions, despite recent speculative long reduction (1). The current state is one of expansion with high tension but no clear reversal signals.
Conviction Band: Medium, Interpretation Confidence: Mixed Signals, Internal Conflict Flag: Yes.

Key Dynamics:

Hedgers are at a 1-year extreme long position (z-score 2.27), indicating deep underlying demand or anticipation of higher prices (1).
Conversely, speculative traders have been reducing long exposure over the past four weeks (flow -1.66%), suggesting some short-term unwinding (1).
The market structure regime is "Spec_Long_Unwind," yet the overall reversal score indicates "No_Clear_Reversal," with no explicit bullish or bearish reversal risks flagged (1).
Conditional Invalidation: A significant shift in hedger positioning, specifically if the hedger z-score falls below 1.0 or turns negative, would weaken the signal of underlying demand.

Scenario Balance:

Base case dominant: Gold maintains current levels or experiences modest appreciation, supported by strong physical/hedger demand offsetting speculative unwinding.
Upside secondary: Renewed speculative buying could amplify hedger-led demand, pushing prices higher.
Downside residual: A sustained, aggressive speculative liquidation could overcome hedger support, leading to a price correction.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months). The build-up of extreme hedger positioning often reflects longer-term supply/demand dynamics.
Aggregation Weight Hint: Medium. The signal offers strong insight into hedger behavior, but the conflicting speculative flows and lack of explicit reversal signals warrant a balanced weighting.

Macro Relevance:

Macro dimension informed: Pricing and sentiment.
Cycle position: Mid-cycle, reflecting sustained demand amidst evolving speculative sentiment.
Typical interaction with other macro signals: Strong hedger positioning often aligns with inflation expectations (2) or real interest rate trends (3), while speculative flows can be influenced by broader risk-on/risk-off sentiment (4) and USD dynamics (5).

Data & References:

Commitment of Traders (COT) data for GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC., latest observation 2026-01-20 (1).
Key influential data points include `Hedger_zscore` (2.27), `hedger_extreme_1y` (True), and `Flow_4w` (-1.66%).
Additional public datasets that would improve depth: Gold pricing data (e.g., from yfinance for price context) and Gold ETF flows.

Gold Individual Market Analysis

Silver Individual Market Analysis

Signal Summary:

As of 2026-01-20, Silver positioning shows a significant divergence with speculators extremely net short while hedgers are deeply net long on a relative basis (1).
This indicates a state of underlying tension and strong contrarian positioning, yet the reversal regime is currently stable. Conviction: Medium, Confidence: Mixed Signals, Internal Conflict: Yes.

Key Dynamics:

Speculative net positioning registers a robust z-score of -2.24, indicating extreme short bias, while hedgers show a z-score of 1.87, reflecting a comparatively deep long position (1).
Recent 4-week speculative flow indicates a reduction in long positions (-7.33% of OI), occurring as the price increased to $85.39 (1).
A `specs_vs_hedgers_divergence` is active, signifying strong opposition between these groups (1).
The `positioning_tension_score` is high at 4.10, but the `reversal_regime` is 'No_Clear_Reversal' (1), indicating tension without immediate tactical triggers.
Conditional Invalidation: A sustained shift in the `hedger_pressure_regime` from `Hedgers_Deep_Long` to `Hedgers_Neutral` or `Hedgers_Deep_Short` (1).

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Silver price continues its upward trend, with hedgers maintaining their relatively bullish stance, absorbing speculative selling pressure (1).
Upside secondary: A sharp price acceleration triggered by forced speculative short covering as prices continue to move against their extreme positioning.
Downside residual: A reversal in hedger sentiment, leading to a significant increase in their absolute net short positions, combined with exhausted speculative buying, causing a price correction.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months), as CoT extreme positioning and flow shifts typically influence market trends over several weeks to months.
Aggregation Weight Hint: High, given the strong signals from extreme and divergent positioning, which often precede significant market shifts.

Macro Relevance:

This signal informs **sentiment** and **liquidity** dynamics. It implies a potential **mid-to-late cycle** dynamic if speculative extremes are attempting to fade a strong underlying trend.
It typically interacts with other macro signals by confirming commodity demand or flagging potential reversals when speculative crowding is extreme, particularly in conjunction with **USD regime** (2) or **inflation expectations** signals (3)(4).

Data & References:

Commitment of Traders (CoT) data for SILVER - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC., latest observation 2026-01-20 (1).
Most influential datapoints for the current state are the `Spec_zscore` (-2.24), `Hedger_zscore` (1.87), `Flow_4w` (-7.33%), and `reversal_regime` ('No_Clear_Reversal') (1).
Additional public datasets that would improve depth or reliability include `Gold_CoT_Signals` (5) for cross-market precious metals context and `USD_Index_Signal` (2) for currency influence.

Silver Individual Market Analysis

Platinum Individual Market Analysis

Signal Summary:

Platinum futures positioning shows a bearish drift with hedgers adding shorts and speculators reducing long exposure, despite recent price strength (last observation 2026-01-20).
Conviction Band: Low | Interpretation Confidence: Mixed Signals | Internal Conflict Flag: Yes

Key Dynamics:

Speculative net positioning is below average (`Spec_zscore` of -0.45), while hedgers are building net short positions (`Hedger_zscore` of 0.95) (1).
Over the last four weeks, speculative investors have reduced long positions (`Flow_4w` at -3.58%), moving to a Long_Reduction regime (1).
The market structure indicates "Hedger_Adding_Short", signifying persistent bearish action from commercial hedgers (1).
However, the "No_Clear_Reversal" regime suggests no immediate tactical turning points are flagged (1).
Conditional Invalidation: A sustained price rally accompanied by speculative long building would invalidate this signal's bearish bias.

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Downside pressure on Platinum as bearish positioning from hedgers and speculative long reduction ultimately weighs on prices.
Most plausible upside risk: Price continues to rally on external factors, forcing short covering from hedgers.
Most plausible downside risk: Speculators capitulate, accelerating the long reduction and deepening price declines.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Tactical (weeks), as CoT data reflects weekly positioning shifts and is best for short-to-medium term trading setups.
Aggregation Weight Hint: Low, due to conflicting price action against positioning and the "Mixed Signals" confidence, reducing its reliability as a standalone indicator.

Macro Relevance:

Macro dimension informed: Sentiment, particularly market-specific speculative and hedging activity in a commodity market.
Cycle position: Provides tactical insight within broader industrial or inflation cycles affecting precious/industrial metals.
Typical interaction with other macro signals: Often combined with industrial production, inflation expectations, and USD strength to gauge overall commodity demand and investor appetite.

Data & References:

Commitment of Traders (COT) data for Platinum, latest observation 2026-01-20 (1). Key datapoints include `Spec_Net_%OI`, `Hedger_Net_%OI`, `Flow_4w`, `Hedger_zscore`, and `market_structure_regime`.
Additional public datasets: Industrial production indices and real interest rates would improve depth by providing macroeconomic context for Platinum's demand drivers.

Platinum Individual Market Analysis

Palladium Individual Market Analysis

Signal Summary:

Palladium futures, as of 2026-01-20, show hedgers maintaining a deeply short position (z-score -1.305), while speculators are exhibiting a positive 4-week long build flow.
This indicates a state of Hedger_Covering with high underlying tension but no immediate reversal flags.
Conviction: Medium, Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence, Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

Hedgers are the dominant "controller" with a net open interest gap of -16.497% (1).
Speculative net positioning has a z-score of 1.275, strongly divergent from hedger positioning (1).
The 4-week speculative flow indicates a "Long_Build" momentum with a strength of 1.237 (1).
The market is in a "Hedgers_Deep_Short" regime, contributing to a "High_Tension_Low_Flags" synthetic state (2)(3).
Conditional Invalidation: The signal would weaken if hedgers cease to be in a "Deep_Short" regime.

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Hedgers remain deeply short, creating potential for future short covering that could support palladium prices.
Upside secondary: Sustained speculative long building, combined with persistent hedger short positions, could lead to a short squeeze or accelerated price appreciation.
Downside residual: Speculative long accumulation stalls or reverses, and hedgers extend their short positions without covering, causing price weakness.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months). The structural positioning of hedgers and the momentum of speculative flows point to a medium-term outlook.
Aggregation Weight Hint: High. The clear divergence and strong underlying positioning dynamics provide robust input for composite macro signals.

Macro Relevance:

Macro dimension informed: This signal primarily informs pricing and sentiment within the industrial metals commodity complex.
Cycle position: The "Hedgers_Deep_Short" regime often suggests anticipated changes in physical supply/demand balance, typically relevant in mid-to-late cycle economic phases (2).
Typical interaction with other macro signals: It often correlates with global growth indicators (4), industrial production data (5), and broader commodity positioning sentiment (6).

Data & References:

Palladium - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE CoT data, latest observation 2026-01-20 (1).
Key datapoints influencing this state include Spec_Net_%OI, Hedger_Net_%OI, Spec_zscore, Hedger_zscore, Flow_4w, and the hedger_deep_short status.
Additional public datasets that would improve depth or reliability: Specific industrial demand data for palladium (e.g., auto catalysts) and the "Energy-Adjusted Metals Tailwind Signal" (7).

Palladium Individual Market Analysis

Copper Individual Market Analysis

Signal Summary:

Copper currently indicates bearish reversal risk as of 2026-01-20, with hedgers holding deep short positions and speculators reducing their long exposure (1). Price is $47.94.
This suggests a transition towards potential price contraction or consolidation.
Conviction Band: Low, Interpretation Confidence: Mixed Signals, Internal Conflict Flag: Yes.

Key Dynamics:

Speculative net positioning is +22.56% of Open Interest (z-score 0.93), while hedgers are deeply short at -32.31% of Open Interest (z-score -1.40)(1).
Hedgers are actively in a "Deep Short" regime, implying significant hedging against price increases or anticipation of supply expansion (2).
The four-week speculative flow shows a "Long Reduction" of -5.73% of Open Interest, signaling weakening bullish momentum (3).
The signal registers "Bearish Reversal Risk" with a score of -1 (4), yet a material divergence between speculators and hedgers is not explicitly flagged (5).
Conditional Invalidation: A sustained return to positive speculative flow or a material reduction in hedger short positioning.

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Moderate price consolidation or gradual decline as speculative long reduction persists against strong hedger short conviction.
Downside secondary: An acceleration of speculative long liquidation could trigger a sharper downward price movement.
Upside residual: A strong positive macro catalyst could lead to renewed speculative buying, potentially absorbing hedger pressure.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Tactical (weeks), given the weekly CoT data and its focus on near-term flow dynamics and reversal potential (1).
Aggregation Weight Hint: Low, due to the low conviction and mixed nature of internal signal components.

Macro Relevance:

Macro dimension informed: Pricing, Sentiment, and indirectly Global Growth & Economic Cycles (6).
Cycle position: Suggests potential mid-to-late cycle dynamics, with signs of demand pressure easing and speculative optimism fading.
Typical interaction with other macro signals: This signal often correlates with industrial demand indicators (7), USD strength/weakness (8), and global liquidity conditions (9), potentially confirming broader economic deceleration.

Data & References:

Commitment of Traders (CoT) data for Copper, latest observation 2026-01-20.
YFinance for Copper price data, latest observation 2026-01-20.
Additional public datasets that would improve depth or reliability: Global industrial production indices and commodity inventories to further contextualise demand and supply fundamentals.

Copper Individual Market Analysis

Lithium Hydroxide Individual Market Analysis

Signal Summary:

The Lithium Hydroxide positioning signal currently indicates a stable, neutral market as of 2026-01-20. It reflects balanced speculative and hedger activity. The synthetic state is Normal, transitioning from a previous "High Tension" period. Conviction Band: Medium, Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence, Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

Speculators are net short (-32.8% OI, z-score 0.16) and hedgers net long (34.2% OI, z-score -0.19) as of 2026-01-20 (1). This indicates a balanced market with a slight short bias.
The 4-week flow shows a Long_Reduction of -2.0, reflecting mild unwinding (1).
No extreme positioning, crowding, or reversal risks are flagged; the reversal score is 0 (1).
Conditional Invalidation: The signal interpretation would reverse if extreme positioning or significant risk flags emerge.

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Continued neutrality, with balanced positioning and absent risk flags.
Upside secondary: Increased speculative long positioning, evidenced by "Long_Build" flow and rising positive speculative z-scores.
Downside residual: Emergence of bearish reversal risks or crowded short conditions, triggered by negative news or weak demand.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Tactical (weeks), as CoT data provides weekly insights into positioning shifts and short-term reversals (1).
Aggregation Weight Hint: Medium, due to high confidence in identifying current tactical positioning and reversal risk.

Macro Relevance:

Macro dimension informed: Sentiment, demand (via hedger activity), and liquidity (via speculative flows).
Cycle position: Mid-cycle, indicating consolidation without strong directional forces.
Typical interaction with other macro signals: This signal can confirm industrial demand trends when correlated with commodity cycle signals (2)(3). It also provides early warnings on supply/demand imbalances.

Data & References:

Commitment of Traders (CoT) data for Lithium Hydroxide, latest 2026-01-20 (1).
Influential datapoints: Spec_Net_%OI (-32.8), Hedger_Net_%OI (34.2), Flow_4w (-2.0), and synthetic_state (Normal).
Additional public datasets: Price data for Lithium Hydroxide futures/spot. Global EV sales data would contextualize demand.

Lithium Hydroxide Individual Market Analysis

Crude Oil Individual Market Analysis

Signal Summary:

The WTI Financial Crude Oil signal (latest: 2026-01-20) shows hedgers maintaining a significant net short position, though their deep short pressure has eased (1). Speculative net contracts are reported as zero, which conflicts with a high bullish z-score and a 100% COT index (1).
This signal is currently stable but clouded by data contradictions, leading to Low Conviction, Low Confidence, and an Internal Conflict Flag of Yes.

Key Dynamics:

Hedgers remain net short at -14.58% of Open Interest (z-score -0.66), with their pressure regime shifting from "Deep_Short" to "Neutral" (1).
The 4-week flow indicates a strong "Long_Build" (0.76), suggesting underlying buying momentum (1).
A material internal conflict exists: speculative net contracts are zero, but the speculative z-score is 1.61 and the COT index for speculators is 100, implying extreme bullish positioning (1).
Conditional Invalidation: Resolution of the data inconsistency regarding speculative net positioning (zero contracts vs. extreme z-score) would clarify the signal's true direction.

Scenario Balance:

Base case dominant; risks balanced. The conflicting speculative data prevents a clear directional bias or outweighing of risks.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Tactical (weeks). CoT data provides weekly updates on positioning shifts (1).
Aggregation Weight Hint: Low. The internal data inconsistency significantly reduces its reliability for composite macro aggregation.

Macro Relevance:

Macro dimension informed: Positioning (speculative and hedger), Sentiment.
Cycle position: Cannot be determined reliably due to the data issues.
Typical interaction: CoT signals usually reflect market sentiment and potential turning points, informing broader commodity and inflation views when coherent.

Data & References:

WTI Financial Crude Oil - New York Mercantile Exchange CoT data, latest observation date 2026-01-20 (1).
The `Spec_Net_Contracts` (0), `Spec_zscore` (1.61), and `COT_Index_Spec` (100) are most influential, highlighting a critical data discrepancy (1).
Additional public datasets: Daily WTI Crude Oil futures prices (e.g., from EIA or FRED) to contextualize positioning with price action.

Crude Oil Individual Market Analysis

Forward Indicators of Economic Cycles Momentum of Flows

Signal Summary:

The Rates sector shows mildly positive average 4-week speculative flows, with more markets experiencing positive flows than negative as of 2026-01-20 (1). Flow momentum is currently positive, indicating an improving trend.
Conviction Band: Medium
Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence
Internal Conflict Flag: No

Key Dynamics:

Average 4-week flow for the Rates sector is positive at 0.37 on 2026-01-20, up from -2.10 on 2025-11-04 (1).
A majority of markets (63.6%) within the Rates sector experienced positive flows, while 36.4% saw negative flows (1).
Flow momentum (avg_flow_4w_mom) is positive at 0.25, continuing an upward trend since 2025-11-25 (1).
Contrarian flow share remains low at 9.1%, suggesting limited immediate pressure from flows opposing existing crowding (1).
Conditional Invalidation: A significant and sustained increase in the contrarian_flow_share (e.g., above 20%) or a reversal of average 4-week flow momentum to consistently negative values.

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Moderate positive flows in Rates are likely to continue, supported by recent improving momentum and low contrarian interest.
Upside secondary: Stronger trend-confirming flows could emerge if market conviction in the central bank policy path or economic outlook becomes more solidified.
Downside residual: Deterioration in average flows and momentum could occur if macro data introduces fresh uncertainty or shifts interest rate expectations.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months), given the 4-week flow aggregation period and 3-week smoothing, which captures near-to-medium term dynamics.
Aggregation Weight Hint: Medium, reflecting the coherent positive momentum and the absence of material internal conflicts, making it a reliable cyclical indicator.

Macro Relevance:

Macro dimension informed: Liquidity, Sentiment.
Cycle position: Mid-cycle, as stable-to-improving flows in interest rate futures often align with periods of economic stability and clearer policy outlook.
Typical interaction with other macro signals: Positive flow momentum in Rates can precede shifts in credit conditions (2) or influence overall financial stress (3), by reflecting evolving market expectations for monetary policy.

Data & References:

Sector Flow & Momentum (1) - Latest observation: 2026-01-20 for the Rates sector.
Datapoints most influential for the current state: avg_flow_4w (0.37), pos_flow_share (0.64), neg_flow_share (0.36), avg_flow_4w_mom (0.25), and contrarian_flow_share (0.09).
1–2 additional public datasets that would improve depth or reliability: Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for broader bond capital flows, and Federal Reserve communications for policy context (4).

Forward Indicators of Economic Cycles Momentum of Flows

Energy Adjusted Metals Tailwind Signal

Signal Summary:

The Energy-Adjusted Metals Tailwind signal indicates a strong Demand_Tailwind regime for copper, with a z-score of 2.883388 as of 2026-01-31 (1). This reflects significant copper-specific demand expansion.
Conviction Band: Extreme, Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence, Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

Copper prices (5.9370 USD/LB on 2026-01-31) are strongly outperforming expectations based on oil prices (60.30 USD/BBL) and USD strength (120.4478 on 2026-01-31).
The Copper_Residual stands at 2.490457, showing robust copper-specific demand not explained by general energy or currency movements (1).
Conditional Invalidation: A significant and sustained rise in oil prices or USD strength without a commensurate increase in copper prices, leading to a `Metals_Tailwind` z-score below -0.75.

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Copper-specific demand remains strong, supporting the current Demand_Tailwind regime.
Upside secondary: Further acceleration in copper-specific demand could drive the z-score even higher.
Downside residual: An uncaptured macro shock or reversal in underlying demand dynamics could weaken the copper residual.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months), as it reflects sustained shifts in copper-specific demand regimes.
Aggregation Weight Hint: High, due to the extreme conviction and high confidence in the signal's indication of strong demand for copper.

Macro Relevance:

This signal primarily informs the demand and pricing dimensions within the commodity sector.
It suggests a mid-cycle position for demand-driven industrial commodities.
Strong demand tailwinds for metals often correlate with positive global growth (2) and could interact with inflation signals (3).

Data & References:

COPPER_YF_USD_LB (latest: 2026-01-31).
DCOILWTICO (latest: 2026-01-31).
DTWEXBGS (latest: 2026-01-31).
The `Metals_Tailwind` z-score (2.883388) and `Metals_Regime` (Demand_Tailwind) on 2026-01-31 are most influential for the current state (1).
Additional public datasets that would improve depth or reliability include global industrial production indices (4) and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data.

Energy Adjusted Metals Tailwind Signal