Copper · Regime State

A Deterministic Summary of Copper Macro Regime Conditions.

As of 2026-01-26

Gemini Summary

Copper Regime State — Deterministic Summary

Overall Copper Regime State Neutral
Dominant Macro Driver Neutral Growth & Liquidity
1-Month Tactical Bias Bearish
3-Month Structural Bias Neutral
Growth & Demand Regime Neutral (All underlying signals are missing for definitive classification)
Liquidity Regime Neutral M2 Money Supply is Bullish (8), but Federal Reserve Liquidity Composite (3) and Real Interest Rate Trend (1) are classified as Neutral due to identified internal conflicts.
USD Regime Weakening USD Index is Bearish (14), while USD Individual Market Analysis is Neutral (15).
Stress Override None Financial Stress Index is Neutral (33), Financial Stress Composite is Neutral (12), and Market Volatility (VIX) is in a Normal regime (31).
Conflicts & Ambiguities
  • Real Interest Rate Trend Signal (1): Internal conflict between explicit methodology and reported state, leading to a Neutral classification for regime aggregation.
  • Federal Reserve Liquidity Composite Signal (3): Identified with mixed signals and an internal conflict, resulting in a Neutral classification for regime aggregation.
Tactical Flags
  • Copper positioning indicates bearish reversal risk, with hedgers holding deep short positions and speculators reducing long exposure (22).
  • Moderate Squeeze Risk is indicated by the Squeeze & Exhaustion Breadth signal (25).
  • Global FX dynamics reflect a "Late-Cycle / Crowded" and "Fragile" environment due to widespread stretched positioning in AUD (17), CAD (18), and YEN (19) futures, suggesting elevated market vulnerability.