Featured insights

Latest views from the Investor Anatomy model

Model basics

How Investor Anatomy thinks like an investor

Signals transform noisy macro and market data into a clean, actionable insight on a single aspect of the environment.

What investors do today
  • Monitor dozens of indicators—PMIs, liquidity, inflation, credit spreads—across models, charts, and research feeds.
  • Manually judge whether each one is improving or deteriorating.
  • Rely on subjective frameworks and inconsistent interpretation.
Human investors are limited
  • Model design and interpretation varies person-by-person and day-by-day.
  • Humans are overwhelmed by the sheer amount of data that needs to be processed.
  • High cognitive load makes it easy to miss turning points or conflicting signals.
  • The complexity of the signal set makes it difficult to systematically improve.
How Investor Anatomy overcomes this
  • Signals are quantitative/qualitative models that deliver a single, simple insight about a well-defined concept.
  • The methodology, interpretation and scoring are transparently defined on each signal page.
  • Investor Anatomy interprets each signal consistently over time and feeds it into higher layers (themes and composites).
Example signal: M2 Money Supply

Macro Themes are groups of related signals that describe one major economic engine, such as liquidity, inflation, labour markets or global demand.

What investors do today
  • Create informal themes (e.g., "liquidity is tightening") based on reports, conversations and selective charts.
  • Apply different definitions of the same theme across teams and time periods.
  • Rely on narratives rather than transparent, data-driven structure.
Human investors are limited
  • Themes are often subjective and analyst-dependent, with limited auditability.
  • It is hard to quantify theme strength and direction through time.
  • Conflicting underlying signals can be hidden by a strong story.
How Investor Anatomy overcomes this
  • Each Macro Theme defines its input signals and aggregation rules explicitly.
  • Theme pages show levels, trend, and interpretation in a consistent format.
  • Themes provide a stable, comparable representation of each economic engine.
Example macro theme: US Liquidity & Monetary Conditions

Macro Composites integrate multiple themes into a single view of the macro regime, such as whether growth is accelerating, inflation is easing, or financial conditions are tightening.

What investors do today
  • Form "house views" by combining many data points, meetings and research pieces.
  • Update regimes infrequently and in a discretionary, narrative-driven way.
  • Struggle to document exactly how a particular macro call was reached.
Human investors are limited
  • Regime calls are prone to confirmation bias and selective evidence.
  • Different investors may interpret the same inputs very differently.
  • A lack of structure makes it difficult to learn from past regime assessments.
How Investor Anatomy overcomes this
  • Macro Composites use defined rules to combine themes into a regime classification.
  • The resulting state (e.g., growth-neutral, inflation-easing) is clearly documented.
  • Changes through time can be tracked and compared in a consistent way.
Example composite: US Macro Regime State, Momentum & Transition Risk

Predictors are forward-looking modules that turn the macro regime and supporting evidence into explicit scenario probabilities for key outcomes, such as the next central bank decision.

What investors do today
  • Infer policy outcomes from headlines, speeches, and commentary.
  • Hold implicit probability views in their head without documenting them.
  • React quickly to news flow, sometimes over-weighting short-term noise.
Human investors are limited
  • Policy views can change abruptly with the latest headline.
  • Assumptions are often not written down or linked back to the underlying macro regime.
  • It is difficult to test whether policy expectations were systematically biased.
How Investor Anatomy overcomes this
  • Predictor nodes use the composite regime, cross-asset evidence and policy communication to frame scenarios.
  • Each scenario (e.g., CUT / HOLD / HIKE) receives an explicit probability and narrative justification.
  • Changes in probabilities can be tracked over time and compared to realised outcomes.
Example predictor: Federal Reserve Watcher

The Portfolio Advisor translates macro regimes and predictor outcomes into portfolio-relevant guidance for a specific investor profile, focusing on alignment, vulnerabilities and opportunity channels.

What investors do today
  • Map macro views to portfolio decisions informally, based on experience and intuition.
  • Use generic advice ("be defensive", "lean into cyclicals") that may not match the actual portfolio.
  • Focus on individual trades rather than the overall risk posture.
Human investors are limited
  • Macro thinking and portfolio construction can drift apart over time.
  • It is easy to overlook how existing positions already express a macro view.
  • Risk discussions can be anecdotal rather than anchored in a clear regime.
How Investor Anatomy overcomes this
  • The Portfolio Advisor starts from the current macro regime and portfolio characteristics.
  • Guidance is framed in terms of alignment, vulnerabilities and opportunity sets rather than specific trades.
  • Output is designed to be repeatable and comparable as regimes evolve.
Example advisor output: Portfolio Advisor · Portfolio Guidance

Investment Theses are structured expressions of how to convert the macro and portfolio context into specific opportunity sets over a defined horizon.

What investors do today
  • Write strategy notes that blend macro views, valuation and qualitative reasoning.
  • Use different formats and levels of rigour for each idea.
  • May not clearly state the macro regime under which a thesis is expected to perform.
Human investors are limited
  • Thesis quality depends heavily on who writes it and when.
  • It is difficult to compare opportunities on a like-for-like basis.
  • Links between theses and the macro regime may be implicit rather than explicit.
How Investor Anatomy overcomes this
  • Theses are built on top of the composite regime and Portfolio Advisor guidance.
  • Each thesis documents macro alignment, key drivers, risks and horizon in a common template.
  • This structure makes it easier to review, compare and revisit ideas over time.
Example thesis: US Mid-cap Strategy

Portfolio Characteristics describe the investor’s identity: objectives, risk tolerance, cash level, structural tilts and constraints.

What investors do today
  • Rely on a general understanding of their portfolio rather than a formalised profile.
  • Know approximate risk levels and tilts, but do not always connect them explicitly to macro decisions.
  • Discuss mandate and constraints periodically rather than embedding them in daily decision-making.
Human investors are limited
  • Without a clear profile, macro guidance can become generic or misaligned.
  • It is easy to forget liquidity, horizon or concentration constraints when focusing on a single idea.
  • Behavioural biases can push decisions away from the intended mandate.
How Investor Anatomy overcomes this
  • The portfolio characteristics page acts as the model's reference for "who the investor is".
  • All macro interpretation and guidance is anchored to this profile.
  • This keeps recommendations consistent with constraints, time horizon and natural tilts.
Example profile: Portfolio Characteristics