Synthesises employment composition, labour-market tightness, wage and hours signals, and worker flows/sentiment to assess the prevailing US labour-market regime.

US Labour Market

Regime Assessment:

State: Transitional / Fragile Balance
Regime Confidence Index: Medium Confidence
Stability: Fragile

Why This Regime:

This regime is driven by a divergence between generally neutral labor market conditions and emerging signs of stress. High-weight signals indicate rising underemployment risk (1) and bearish consumer sentiment (2). These trends suggest a weakening in demand and increasing labor market slack.
Dynamic weighting prioritized signals with "High Aggregation Weight" and "High Confidence." Consumer Sentiment (2) and Underemployment Risk (1) received high weight due to their strong conviction and confidence. Employment Composition (3) also held high weight, showing a neutral state.
The Labor Market Turnover Differential signal (4) was downweighted due to its "Low Conviction," "Mixed Signals," and "Internal Conflict Flag" indicating a tension between its bearish z-score and positive raw differential.

Alignment & Tensions:

Reinforcing signals point to a softening trend. Bearish consumer sentiment (2) aligns with rising underemployment risk (1), both suggesting decelerating demand and increasing labor market weakness. The Explicit Slack Gap signal (5), while neutral, shows momentum towards widening slack.
Tensions exist with other high-confidence, medium-to-high weight signals that indicate neutral conditions. These include Employment Composition (3), Sectoral Employment Diffusion (6), Job Flows & Labor Dynamism (7), Labour Market Momentum (8), Weekly Hours (9), and Labor Market Tightness (10).
These neutral readings do not overturn the regime call as the high-weight signals indicating stress are more decisive for the forward-looking assessment. The neutral signals largely reflect stability rather than strength.

Scenario Balance:

Dominant scenario: A continued fragile balance, with stable headline labor metrics but increasing underlying slack and softening demand.
Primary upside risk: A sustained improvement in consumer sentiment and a reversal of underemployment stress, driven by stronger economic activity.
Primary downside risk: Further deterioration in consumer sentiment or a significant increase in the Underemployment Risk composite z-score (1).

What Would Change the Regime:

A sustained rebound in the Consumer Sentiment's level z-score above -0.5 (2).
The Underemployment Risk composite z-score consistently falling below +0.75 (1).
A clear shift in Employment Composition's z-score outside the -0.75 to +0.75 range, moving to a COOL or HOT regime (3).

Inputs

Explicit Slack Gap Signal

Signal Summary:

The Explicit Slack Gap signal indicates a Neutral labor market slack regime as of July 31, 2025 (1). The unemployment rate is nearly aligned with the natural rate, showing a minor negative gap of -0.015608 percentage points (1). Momentum is currently widening, suggesting a slight trend towards more slack.
Conviction Band: Medium | Interpretation Confidence: Medium | Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

The neutral state is driven by the unemployment rate (UNRATE) at 4.3% closely tracking the natural rate of unemployment (NROU) at 4.315608% (1). The slack gap of -0.015608 pp falls within the neutral zone (between -0.50 pp and +0.50 pp) (1).
However, the 3-month change in the slack gap is +0.206065 pp, indicating "Widening" momentum towards more slack (1). Confidence is Medium due to the gap being in the "near-neutral zone" (1).
Conditional Invalidation: A material revision to the NROU estimate that moves the slack gap outside the ±0.25 pp near-neutral zone, as highlighted by NAIRU proxy uncertainty (1).

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Neutral slack conditions persist, as the unemployment gap remains near zero despite recent widening momentum.
Downside secondary: A continued widening of the slack gap beyond +0.50 pp, potentially driven by higher UNRATE, would shift the regime to Slackening.
Upside residual: A reversal of the current widening momentum, pushing the slack gap below -0.50 pp, would indicate a return to Tight labor market conditions.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months). This signal captures monthly labor market dynamics and 3-month momentum shifts, relevant for medium-term policy analysis (1).
Aggregation Weight Hint: Medium. The signal provides a core input for labor market slack, but its current neutral state and medium confidence suggest balancing with other indicators.

Macro Relevance:

This signal primarily informs the **slack** dimension of the macro economy. It indicates a **mid-cycle** position where the labor market is no longer tightening rapidly.
It typically interacts with **inflation signals** (as slack influences wage and price pressures) and **monetary policy expectations** (as the Federal Reserve targets maximum employment) (1).

Data & References:

UNRATE: Civilian Unemployment Rate (BLS-origin via FRED), 4.3% as of 2025-07-31 (1).
NROU: Natural Rate of Unemployment (CBO estimate via FRED), 4.315608% as of 2025-07-31 (1).
The `SlackGap_pp` of -0.015608 and `SlackGap_change_3m_pp` of +0.206065 are most influential for the current state.
1–2 additional public datasets that would improve depth or reliability: U-6 Underemployment Rate (2) for broader labor underutilization, and Labor Force Participation Rate (3) for labor supply dynamics.

Explicit Slack Gap Signal

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Signal

Signal Summary:

U.S. consumer sentiment is currently in a Bearish regime, with the UMCSENT index at 52.9 as of 2025-12-31 (1). This signifies a contraction in consumer optimism.
Conviction Band: High, Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence, Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

The primary driver is the robust z-score of the sentiment level at -0.98, which is below the -0.5 threshold for Bearish conditions (1).
Momentum is strongly negative, with year-over-year sentiment declining by 28.51% and 3-month momentum down by 3.99% (1).
The signal shows clear, consistent deterioration across its level and momentum components.
Conditional Invalidation: A rebound in the sentiment's level z-score above -0.5 or a sustained positive shift in both YoY and 3-month momentum would invalidate this Bearish interpretation (1).

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Continued weak consumer sentiment due to persistent low absolute levels and negative momentum (1).
Upside secondary: A notable and sustained improvement in short-term (3-month) sentiment momentum.
Downside residual: Further erosion in the sentiment level and acceleration of negative momentum.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months). Rationale: The signal uses monthly data, including 3-month and year-over-year changes, suitable for capturing medium-term cyclical shifts in demand (1).
Aggregation Weight Hint: High. Justification: As a core demand indicator, consumer sentiment holds significant weight in broader macro composites (1).

Macro Relevance:

This signal primarily informs the macro dimensions of demand and sentiment (1).
Its current state suggests a late-cycle or potentially contracting phase for household consumption.
It typically interacts with labor market (2), inflation (3), and credit conditions (4) signals to form a comprehensive macro regime view (1).

Data & References:

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT) from FRED, latest observation 2025-12-31 (1).
The UMCSENT level (52.9), its robust Level_z (-0.980061), YoY_pct (-28.51%), and 3M_pct (-3.99%) for 2025-12-31 are most influential (1).
Additional public datasets that would improve depth or reliability include the Employment Composition Signal (5) and Wage Growth and Inflation Signal (6).

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Signal

Sectoral Employment Diffusion Signal

Signal Summary:

The Sectoral Employment Diffusion Signal (1) currently indicates a NEUTRAL regime for U.S. payroll growth breadth as of 2025-12-01.
The diffusion index remains flat at 50%, signaling a stable state with an equal number of expanding and contracting sectors.
This state is interpreted with Medium Conviction and High Confidence, with no internal conflicts observed.

Key Dynamics:

The primary quantitative driver is the diffusion z-score, which is precisely 0.0, placing it within the defined NEUTRAL range of -0.75 to +0.75 (1).
While overall diffusion is stable, median sector year-over-year growth is slightly negative (-0.001300), with negative 3-month momentum (-0.002580).
Conditional Invalidation: A sustained move of the diffusion z-score above +0.75 (HOT) or below -0.75 (COOL) would invalidate this neutral interpretation.

Scenario Balance:

Base case dominant: The prevailing NEUTRAL regime in sectoral employment diffusion is expected to continue, supported by the stable diffusion index and z-score.
Upside secondary: Broad-based acceleration in employment growth across a majority of sectors, leading to a diffusion z-score above +0.75.
Most plausible downside risk: A clear narrowing of employment breadth, with more sectors contracting than expanding, causing the diffusion z-score to fall below -0.75.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

This signal operates on a Cyclical (months) time horizon, as it tracks year-over-year growth and 3-month momentum in employment.
It warrants a Medium Aggregation Weight hint due to its clear, confident reading and its importance as a breadth indicator for the labor market.

Macro Relevance:

This signal primarily informs the Slack and Demand dimensions of the macro economy.
It helps identify the cycle position by indicating whether the labor market is in a broad expansion (Hot), narrow/weak (Cool), or stable (Neutral) phase (1).
A stable or broadening diffusion typically interacts positively with broader growth and consumption signals, while a narrowing diffusion often foreshadows slowdowns (1).

Data & References:

CES3000000001 (Manufacturing), CES2000000001 (Construction), CES6000000001 (Professional & Business Services), CES7000000001 (Leisure & Hospitality) employment levels and year-over-year growth, latest observation 2025-12-01.
The `Diffusion_Index`, `Diffusion_z`, `Diffusion_Regime`, `Median_Sector_YoY`, and `Median_Sector_YoY_mom_3m` were most influential for the current state.
Additional public datasets that would improve depth or reliability include the full BLS CES database for a broader diffusion index, and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for labor demand insights.

Sectoral Employment Diffusion Signal

Labor Market Turnover Signal

Signal Summary:

The Labor Market Turnover Differential signal is currently in a Bearish regime as of November 2025 (1). This indicates a softening in labor market conditions.
Conviction Band: Low, Interpretation Confidence: Mixed Signals, Internal Conflict Flag: Yes.

Key Dynamics:

The quits rate (2.0%) still exceeds the layoff rate (1.1%), yielding a positive raw differential of 0.9 percentage points for 2025-11-01.
However, the robust z-score of this differential has fallen to -0.67, crossing the -0.50 threshold that triggers a Bearish classification.
This suggests weakening worker confidence and declining labor market dynamism, despite quits still outpacing layoffs on an absolute basis.
Conditional Invalidation: The robust z-score of the turnover differential rises above -0.50, which would transition the signal to a Neutral regime.

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Continued labor market softening with the z-score remaining below -0.50, reflecting ongoing declines in worker confidence.
Downside secondary: The raw turnover differential turns negative, or the z-score drops further below -1.0, signaling significant labor market deterioration.
Upside residual: The robust z-score rebounds above -0.50 due to an unexpected surge in quits or a further fall in layoffs, shifting the signal to Neutral.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months), as it tracks shifts in labor market dynamics that evolve over several months and are relevant to business cycle phases.
Aggregation Weight Hint: Medium, given its importance as a labor market barometer; however, the internal conflict between the raw level and z-score suggests careful weighting.

Macro Relevance:

This signal primarily informs the US Labour Market dimension, indicating shifts in tightness or slack and reflecting worker sentiment.
A Bearish reading often signifies a mid-to-late cycle phase, preceding broader economic slowdowns or increased recession risk.
It typically interacts with other labor market indicators (e.g., job openings, unemployment rate) and consumption data, potentially confirming a broader easing trend.

Data & References:

JTSQUR: Quits Rate (2.0%, 2025-11-01).
JTSLDR: Layoffs & Discharges Rate (1.1%, 2025-11-01).
The `Turnover_Diff_z` (-0.67) is the most influential datapoint for the current Bearish regime, with `Turnover_Diff_pp` (0.9) providing important context.
Additional public datasets that would improve depth: Employment Composition Signal (2) and Labor Market Tightness Signal (3).

Labor Market Turnover Signal

Job Flows Signal

Signal Summary:

The Job Flows & Labor Dynamism signal is currently in a NEUTRAL regime as of 2025-03-31, reflecting balanced job creation and destruction dynamics (1). Net Job Creation stands at 210.0, with the composite z-score at -0.21, indicating neither strong dynamism nor significant slackening.
This signals a stable state in labor market dynamism, showing neither expansion nor contraction.
Conviction Band: Medium | Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence | Internal Conflict Flag: No

Key Dynamics:

The NEUTRAL regime is driven by the Job Flows Composite z-score of -0.21, which falls between the -0.75 and +0.75 thresholds (1).
Net Job Creation was 210.0 at the latest observation, influenced by Gross Job Gains of 7448.0 and Gross Job Losses of 7238.0.
Momentum has stabilised following a "COOL" period in 2023-09-30, with subsequent quarters remaining neutral.
Conditional Invalidation: The signal would reverse if the `Job_Flows_Composite_z` falls below -0.75, indicating a shift to a "COOL" (dynamism ↓) regime (1).

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Job flows remain in a NEUTRAL regime, with steady but not accelerating dynamism, as the composite z-score hovers near zero.
Upside secondary: An increase in Gross Job Gains relative to Gross Job Losses, pushing Net Job Creation higher and the composite z-score above +0.75.
Downside residual: A significant decline in Gross Job Gains or a rise in Gross Job Losses, leading to negative Net Job Creation and the composite z-score falling below -0.75.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months). This is appropriate given the quarterly frequency of the underlying Business Employment Dynamics data and its focus on labor market cycles (1).
Aggregation Weight Hint: Medium. The signal provides clear and consistently derived insights into firm-level labor market activity, warranting a moderate weight in broader macro composites.

Macro Relevance:

This signal primarily informs the Macro Theme: US Labour Market (5), specifically regarding labor dynamism and firm hiring appetite.
It typically corresponds to a mid-to-late cycle position, reflecting shifts in underlying business activity.
It interacts with other macro signals like payroll breadth (2), unemployment duration (3)(4), and broader growth indicators.

Data & References:

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Business Employment Dynamics (BDS) data, latest observation 2025-03-31 (1).
The `Job_Flows_Regime` and `Job_Flows_Composite_z` are most influential for the current state.
Additional public datasets that would improve depth or reliability include payroll breadth data (e.g., Sectoral Employment Diffusion Signal (2)) and unemployment duration (e.g., Underemployment Risk Signal (3) or Explicit Slack Gap Signal (4)).

Job Flows Signal

Labour Market Momentum Signal

Signal Summary:

The Labour Market Momentum signal is currently in a Neutral regime as of 2025-12-31, with a composite Z-score of -0.05.
This indicates stable labour market conditions, consistent with trend growth, showing no strong expansion or contraction.
Conviction Band: Medium | Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence | Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

The composite's near-zero value is driven by inverted Z-scores of Initial Claims YoY (-0.14) and Continuing Claims YoY (-0.04), alongside the Z-score of Nonfarm Payrolls 3-month difference (0.01) (1).
Momentum is stabilised, indicating neither significant tightening nor softening in the labour market.
Conditional Invalidation: The `Labor_Momentum` Z-score consistently exceeding +0.75 (Tightening) or falling below -0.75 (Softening) would reverse the interpretation (1).

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Continued Neutral labour market conditions, supported by current indicators remaining within established thresholds.
Upside secondary: A sustained acceleration in payrolls and sharp decline in jobless claims, pushing `Labor_Momentum` above +0.75.
Downside residual: A notable increase in jobless claims and deceleration in payrolls, causing `Labor_Momentum` to drop below -0.75.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months), given the use of monthly data and 3-month differences for capturing momentum shifts.
Aggregation Weight Hint: Medium, reflecting the signal's high confidence in its neutral assessment, yet lacking strong directional conviction.

Macro Relevance:

This signal primarily informs the Labour market dimension, indicating tightness or slack within the economic cycle.
A Neutral regime suggests a mid-cycle or stable phase, not displaying extremes of early or late-cycle dynamics.
It complements other labour market signals such as "Employment Composition" (2) and "Labor Market Tightness" (3), and contributes to the "US Macro Regime State" (4).

Data & References:

Initial Claims, Seasonally Adjusted (ICSA), latest observation 2025-12-31.
Continuing Claims, Seasonally Adjusted (CCSA), latest observation 2025-12-31.
Total Nonfarm Payrolls, Seasonally Adjusted (PAYEMS), latest observation 2025-12-31.
Additional public datasets that would improve depth or reliability include the "Wage Growth and Inflation Signal" (5) and "Underemployment Risk Signal" (6).

Labour Market Momentum Signal

Weekly Hours Signal

Signal Summary:

The Weekly Hours signal (1) for December 2025 indicates a NEUTRAL regime, reflecting stable labor demand. Both total private and manufacturing hours show minimal recent change. Conviction Band: Low, Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence, Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

Total private average weekly hours were 34.2 and manufacturing hours were 39.9 as of 2025-12-01.
The 3-month composite change in hours is marginally negative at -0.05, while the composite level z-score is near zero at -0.067, indicating stability.
This stability keeps the signal firmly within the NEUTRAL regime, defined by the composite z-score being between -0.75 and +0.75.
Conditional Invalidation: A sustained move of the Hours_Level_Composite_z above +0.75 or below -0.75 would invalidate the current NEUTRAL interpretation.

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Continued neutral labor demand, reflecting equilibrium in average working hours.
Upside secondary: A rebound in 3-month change momentum, particularly in manufacturing, could push the signal towards "Hot."
Downside residual: A notable deceleration in both private and manufacturing hours, moving the composite z-score into negative territory, suggesting a "Cool" regime.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months), as firms adjust hours before headcount, making it a forward-looking indicator for near-term labor market shifts.
Aggregation Weight Hint: Medium, given its leading nature for employment trends and its stable, high-confidence reading.

Macro Relevance:

Macro dimension informed: Labour demand, slack, and overall business cycle health.
Cycle position: Suggests a mid-cycle or stable phase where labor demand is neither rapidly expanding nor contracting.
Typical interaction with other macro signals: Often correlates with broader employment metrics like nonfarm payrolls (2), consumer sentiment (3), and industrial production (4).

Data & References:

Total Private: Average Weekly Hours (SA) (BLS CES0500000002), Manufacturing: Average Weekly Hours (SA) (BLS CES3000000002); latest observation 2025-12-01.
The 'Weekly_Hours_Regime' and 'Hours_Level_Composite_z' were most influential in determining the current stable state.
Additional public datasets: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment sub-index.

Weekly Hours Signal

Labor Market Tightness Signal

Signal Summary:

The Labor Market Tightness signal indicates NEUTRAL conditions, a regime maintained consistently since 2024-10-01 (1). The composite z-score shows stable labor market dynamics, remaining within the established neutral band.
Conviction Band: Medium | Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence | Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

As of 2025-11-01, the `LMT_Regime` is NEUTRAL, with a smoothed composite z-score of -0.2058 (1). This value is comfortably above the `COOL` threshold of -0.75 (1).
The quits rate (2.0%) and layoffs rate (1.1%) have remained stable, resulting in a `Labor_Tightness` differential of 0.9 (1).
The job openings rate stands at 4.3% (1). Momentum diagnostics (3-month changes) for both tightness (0.1) and openings (0.0) are subdued (1).
Conditional Invalidation: A sustained movement of the composite z-score outside the +/- 0.75 range, driven by significant changes in quits, layoffs, or job openings rates (1).

Scenario Balance:

Base case dominant: Labor market tightness is expected to persist in a NEUTRAL regime, characterized by stable quits, layoffs, and job openings rates.
Upside secondary: A sustained increase in the quits rate or job openings rate could signal a shift towards 'HOT' labor market conditions.
Downside residual: A significant rise in layoffs or a notable decline in job openings could push conditions towards a 'COOL' regime.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months) – This signal, based on monthly data, captures medium-term shifts in labor market dynamics, relevant for business cycle analysis.
Aggregation Weight Hint: Medium – The signal provides a consistent and important assessment of labor market health, offering reliable input for broader macro composites.

Macro Relevance:

This signal primarily informs the macro dimensions of labor market slack and potential wage inflation (pricing). It also provides insights into worker confidence.
The current NEUTRAL regime is indicative of a mid-cycle economic position, where labor demand is balanced rather than showing extreme overheating or cooling.
It typically complements inflation signals (2), monetary conditions (3), and overall growth indicators (4) for a holistic economic assessment.

Data & References:

Labor Market Tightness Signal (1) - Latest observation: 2025-11-01.
The `LMT_Regime`, `LMT_Composite_z`, `quits_rate`, `layoffs_rate`, and `openings_rate` are the most influential data points (1).
Additional public datasets that would improve depth: BLS Unemployment Rate, and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) for comprehensive wage growth insights (5).

Labor Market Tightness Signal

Underemployment Risk Signal

Signal Summary:

The Underemployment Risk signal (1) has transitioned to a HOT (stress ↑) regime as of 2025-12-01 (1). This indicates rising broad labour market slack and longer job-finding durations. Conviction Band: High, Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence, Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

The shift to HOT is driven by the composite z-score increasing to 1.25, surpassing the +0.75 threshold (1). Both the U-6 underutilization rate (8.4%) and median weeks unemployed (11.4 weeks) contributed, with their z-scores at 0.99 and 1.51, respectively (1). Both components show positive 3-month momentum.
Conditional Invalidation: The signal would weaken or reverse if the composite z-score consistently falls below +0.75, moving out of the HOT regime (1).

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Underemployment stress persists or slightly increases, supported by current positive momentum in slack indicators.
Upside secondary: Labour market resilience improves, and median weeks unemployed begin a sustained decline.
Downside residual: U-6 underutilization rises further, and job-finding frictions prolong significantly.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months), reflecting the use of monthly data and 3-month momentum for assessing medium-term labour market trends (1).
Aggregation Weight Hint: High, due to its strong and coherent indication of rising labour market slack, which is a critical macro input.

Macro Relevance:

This signal primarily informs the slack dimension of the US labour market (1). A HOT regime suggests a mid-to-late cycle slowdown, with cooling demand and softening employment conditions (1). It typically interacts with inflation (potential downward pressure) and consumption (weakening).

Data & References:

U-6: Alternative measure of labor underutilization (LNS13327709), latest 8.4% as of 2025-12-01 (1).
Median weeks unemployed (LNS13008276), latest 11.4 weeks as of 2025-12-01 (1).
These two components and their 3-month momentum were most influential in the current state (1).
Additional public datasets: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data on quits and hires, and initial jobless claims, could enhance depth.

Underemployment Risk Signal

Employment Composition Signal

Signal Summary:

The Employment Composition signal (1) indicates a NEUTRAL state for the U.S. labor market as of 2025-12-01, with the composite z-score at -0.62.
This reflects a stable period with neither significant tightness nor rising slack.
Conviction Band: High | Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence | Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

The neutral state is driven by a stable participation rate (62.4%), employment-population ratio (59.7%), and unemployment rate (4.4%) as of 2025-12-01 (1).
Three-month momentum for these key metrics shows largely stable conditions (participation -0.1, emp-pop 0.0, unemployment 0.0) (1).
No internal offsets or tensions are observed, supporting the neutral classification.
Conditional Invalidation: The signal would reverse if the composite Employment Composition z-score moves outside the -0.75 to +0.75 range, shifting the regime to HOT or COOL (1).

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Continued neutral labor market conditions, supported by current stability in participation, employment, and unemployment rates.
Most plausible upside risk and trigger: An increase in participation or employment-population ratio, or a decrease in unemployment, leading to a HOT regime (z-score > +0.75).
Most plausible downside risk and trigger: A decrease in participation or employment-population ratio, or an increase in unemployment, leading to a COOL regime (z-score < -0.75).

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Time Horizon: Cyclical (months) – reflects monthly changes and 3-month momentum, typical for labor market cycles.
Aggregation Weight Hint: High – provides a robust and coherent view of labor market health, a critical macro input.

Macro Relevance:

This signal primarily informs the macro dimension of slack, indicating the degree of tightness or looseness in the labor market (1).
The current neutral state suggests a mid-cycle position where labor market dynamics are balanced.
It typically interacts with other macro signals by cross-validating insights on wage growth (2), overall inflation (3), and broad economic growth trends (4).

Data & References:

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Population Survey (CPS) data for participation rate, employment-population ratio, and unemployment rate, latest observation 2025-12-01.
The `Employment_Regime` (NEUTRAL) and `Employment_Composition_z` (-0.622590) are most influential for the current state (1).
The Wage Growth and Inflation Signal (2) and Federal Reserve Liquidity Composite Signal (5) would improve depth and reliability.

Employment Composition Signal