Cross-Sector Positioning

CoT sector positioning vs history.

As of 2026-01-20

Gemini Summary

Signal Summary:

  • As of 2026-01-20, the Sector Positioning signal indicates a stable environment, with no broad speculative crowding, hedger pressure, or unwind risk across major macro sectors. The signal is in a neutral state.
  • Conviction Band: Low, Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence, Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

  • For the latest observation on 2026-01-20, all reported sectors (Ags, Energy, FX, Metals, Rates) show `spec_crowded_long_share` below 0.40, `hedger_pressure_share` below 0.40, and `unwind_risk_share` below 0.30 (1). This implies a lack of systemic positioning imbalances.
  • The signal currently indicates stabilisation, reflecting a period without significant stress triggers.
  • No internal offsets or tensions are observed, as all broad flags are consistently `False` for the latest period.
  • Conditional Invalidation: The interpretation would be invalidated if any sector's `spec_crowded_long_share` or `hedger_pressure_share` exceeds 0.40, or `unwind_risk_share` exceeds 0.30 (1).

Scenario Balance:

  • Base Case dominant: A continuation of the neutral positioning environment, with no systemic crowding or stress across futures sectors, supported by the current `False` readings for all broad flags.
  • Upside secondary: A sudden, broad speculative crowding in cyclically sensitive sectors could signal a strong directional consensus.
  • Downside residual: Increased broad hedger pressure or unwind risk across multiple sectors would point to rising market instability or potential reversals.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

  • Time Horizon: Cyclical (months). This signal captures medium-term positioning dynamics by aggregating weekly CoT data and 4-week flows (1).
  • Aggregation Weight Hint: Low. The signal's current neutral state provides minimal active directional input, mainly confirming stable market conditions.

Macro Relevance:

  • Macro dimension informed: Sentiment, liquidity (speculative positioning), and supply/demand dynamics (hedger pressure) (1).
  • Cycle position: Suggests a neutral phase in the positioning cycle, not indicating extreme risk-on or risk-off sentiment.
  • Typical interaction with other macro signals: Complements aggregate sentiment indicators like the Global Risk-On / Risk-Off Positioning Tone (2) and broader instability measures like the Portfolio-Level Early Warning System (3).

Data & References:

  • Commitment of Traders (CoT) data, latest observation 2026-01-20.
  • The `spec_crowded_long_share`, `hedger_pressure_share`, and `unwind_risk_share` across all sectors on 2026-01-20 are most influential (1).
  • Additional public datasets that would improve depth or reliability: VIX Market Volatility (4) for broader sentiment context, and Forward Indicators of Economic Cycles (Momentum of Flows) (5) for confirming cyclical shifts.

Sector Positioning Chart

Signal chart

Net speculative positioning by sector vs 5-year history.

Cross-Sector Positioning Table▸
Report_Date Sector n_markets spec_crowded_long_share spec_crowded_short_share hedger_pressure_share unwind_risk_share avg_spec_zscore avg_hedger_zscore broad_spec_crowding broad_hedger_pressure broad_unwind_risk
1257 2026-01-06 Metals 9 0.444444 0.222222 0.333333 0.222222 0.197232 0.118697 True False False
1258 2026-01-06 Other 273 0.223443 0.216117 0.234432 0.091575 -0.017078 -0.020856 False False False
1259 2026-01-06 Rates 11 0.090909 0.181818 0.181818 0.181818 0.022051 0.017011 False False False
1260 2026-01-13 Ags 14 0.142857 0.142857 0.214286 0.071429 -0.207489 -0.184175 False False False
1261 2026-01-13 Energy 28 0.214286 0.357143 0.178571 0.035714 -0.262998 -0.071115 False False False
1262 2026-01-13 FX 13 0.230769 0.307692 0.307692 0.000000 -0.202584 0.055019 False False False
1263 2026-01-13 Metals 12 0.250000 0.166667 0.250000 0.166667 0.221642 0.166454 False False False
1264 2026-01-13 Other 290 0.234483 0.220690 0.203448 0.096552 0.055932 -0.016572 False False False
1265 2026-01-13 Rates 11 0.181818 0.181818 0.090909 0.181818 0.195933 -0.057580 False False False
1266 2026-01-20 Ags 14 0.142857 0.214286 0.142857 0.071429 -0.295594 -0.111412 False False False
1267 2026-01-20 Energy 28 0.214286 0.321429 0.071429 0.214286 -0.201244 -0.017995 False False False
1268 2026-01-20 FX 13 0.230769 0.153846 0.307692 0.076923 -0.173610 0.068943 False False False
1269 2026-01-20 Metals 10 0.200000 0.100000 0.200000 0.000000 0.127700 0.580040 False False False
1270 2026-01-20 Other 291 0.247423 0.223368 0.206186 0.113402 0.069892 -0.026788 False False False
1271 2026-01-20 Rates 11 0.272727 0.090909 0.181818 0.090909 0.454945 -0.328247 False False False
Methodology: Cross-Sector Positioning