Market Implied Inflation Signal

Market-implied inflation signal: tracking investor expectations for future inflation.

As of Unknown

Gemini Summary

Signal Summary:

  • Market-Implied Inflation Expectations (MIIE) currently remain in a STABLE regime as of 2026-01-31.
  • This indicates market expectations for medium-term inflation are neither strongly rising nor falling.
  • Conviction Band: Medium, Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence, Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

  • The MIIE composite z-score is 0.27 (1), well within the STABLE regime's -0.5 to 1.0 threshold (1).
  • Both 5-year forward and 10-year breakeven inflation rates show subdued momentum, with their 3-month annualized z-scores near zero (1).
  • Conditional Invalidation: A sustained move of the MIIE composite z-score below -0.5 (FALLING) or above 1.0 (RISING) (1).

Scenario Balance:

  • Base Case dominant: Market-implied inflation expectations will likely continue in a STABLE regime, supported by current levels and momentum.
  • Upside secondary: Expectations could shift to RISING if economic activity significantly outperforms, pushing breakevens higher.
  • Downside residual: A notable economic slowdown or disinflationary event could cause expectations to enter a FALLING regime.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

  • Time Horizon: Structural (quarters+), reflecting longer-term market views inherent in 5-year and 10-year breakevens (1).
  • Aggregation Weight Hint: Medium, given the high confidence in the current stability but a lack of strong directional conviction.

Macro Relevance:

  • This signal primarily informs the Pricing dimension, specifically market-based inflation expectations.
  • It provides a forward-looking perspective relevant across economic cycles, especially when assessing policy implications.
  • The signal complements realised inflation measures (2)(3) and producer price dynamics (4).

Data & References:

  • 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate (T5YIE), latest 2.46% as of 2026-01-31 (1).
  • 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T10YIE), latest 2.32% as of 2026-01-31 (1).
  • Additional public datasets: Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters and commodity price indices.

Market Implied Inflation Chart

Signal chart

Market-implied inflation: investor expectations for future price changes.

Market Implied Inflation Table▸
T5YIE T10YIE t5yie_level_z t5yie_yoy_z t5yie_ann3m_z t10yie_level_z t10yie_yoy_z t10yie_ann3m_z MIIE_z MIIE_score MIIE_regime
2023-02-28 2.58 2.43 1.547084 -1.139837 0.622607 0.929298 -0.445944 0.331717 0.690289 70.036925 STABLE
2023-03-31 2.40 2.32 1.174623 -1.961212 0.276714 0.704248 -1.055252 0.022114 0.282678 62.896561 STABLE
2023-04-30 2.20 2.18 0.791402 -2.255168 -0.215837 0.426516 -1.283708 -0.337245 -0.054890 56.983186 STABLE
2023-05-31 2.07 2.18 0.557579 -1.778203 -1.798642 0.426516 -0.685197 -1.191600 -0.207199 54.315104 STABLE
2023-06-30 2.18 2.22 0.741493 -0.739442 -0.755430 0.509615 0.032119 -0.517110 0.212683 61.670418 STABLE
2023-07-31 2.27 2.37 0.896363 -0.805507 0.291672 0.803438 -0.042825 0.764423 0.483034 66.406319 STABLE
2023-08-31 2.15 2.24 0.678899 -0.741940 0.291672 0.545544 -0.214124 0.186066 0.309747 63.370752 STABLE
2023-09-30 2.22 2.35 0.783280 0.213508 0.109377 0.747278 0.685030 0.529957 0.605146 68.545416 STABLE
2023-10-31 2.40 2.42 1.089562 -0.479638 0.388063 0.864488 0.010706 0.144534 0.612639 68.676684 STABLE
2023-11-30 2.15 2.23 0.652733 -0.459653 -0.092396 0.503493 -0.010706 -0.144534 0.296231 63.133986 STABLE
2023-12-31 2.12 2.16 0.590730 -0.370712 -0.461980 0.370495 -0.074943 -0.976849 0.181548 61.125005 STABLE
2024-01-31 2.24 2.26 0.793519 -0.010377 -0.674491 0.560492 0.239335 -0.809389 0.369345 64.414765 STABLE
2024-02-29 2.40 2.33 1.044373 -0.324174 0.809389 0.688641 -0.021758 0.359728 0.613704 68.695342 STABLE
2024-03-31 2.38 2.32 0.966045 0.000000 0.760964 0.669774 0.089189 0.629525 0.640273 69.160765 STABLE
2024-04-30 2.43 2.41 1.026583 0.531095 0.539593 0.827996 0.501687 0.584559 0.793981 71.853357 STABLE
2024-05-31 2.34 2.35 0.852424 0.616070 -0.305769 0.711449 0.367904 0.000000 0.599370 68.444239 STABLE
2024-06-30 2.24 2.28 0.682716 0.169950 -0.528655 0.582095 0.122635 -0.269796 0.386697 64.718718 STABLE
2024-07-31 2.13 2.24 0.501755 -0.254926 -1.061199 0.508178 -0.200675 -0.818235 0.145115 60.486786 STABLE
2024-08-31 2.01 2.15 0.279667 -0.244304 -1.169117 0.341865 -0.011149 -0.920733 0.018483 58.268509 STABLE
2024-09-30 2.07 2.18 0.372418 -0.265548 -0.601573 0.397303 -0.189526 -0.508632 0.121022 60.064739 STABLE
2024-10-31 2.38 2.33 0.868976 0.000000 0.838556 0.669839 -0.011149 0.314762 0.597611 68.413431 STABLE
2024-11-30 2.33 2.26 0.753112 0.424876 1.020851 0.524604 0.160049 0.418649 0.610550 68.640083 STABLE
2024-12-31 2.38 2.34 0.802768 0.571968 0.984392 0.632040 0.400122 0.674491 0.703059 70.260612 STABLE
2025-01-31 2.54 2.42 1.042771 0.625138 0.425022 0.726375 0.345893 0.313156 0.752762 71.131300 STABLE
2025-02-28 2.58 2.38 1.075875 0.329020 0.747409 0.626991 0.093033 0.457690 0.708990 70.364524 STABLE
2025-03-31 2.61 2.38 1.100703 0.416759 0.674491 0.626991 0.106499 0.072267 0.712929 70.433520 STABLE
2025-04-30 2.29 2.23 0.537937 -0.394824 -1.057310 0.322996 -0.461494 -1.011736 0.057566 58.953136 STABLE
2025-05-31 2.39 2.34 0.674491 0.021935 -0.838556 0.514360 -0.060222 -0.289067 0.296927 63.146165 STABLE
2025-06-30 2.31 2.29 0.526432 0.054837 -1.151131 0.386840 -0.012376 -0.529957 0.176651 61.039218 STABLE
2025-07-31 2.46 2.39 0.748520 0.613173 0.473966 0.559578 0.312264 0.674491 0.611321 68.653595 STABLE
2025-08-31 2.47 2.41 0.740295 0.880740 0.145836 0.593955 0.559955 0.220742 0.629803 68.977355 STABLE
2025-09-30 2.42 2.36 0.645525 0.623479 0.240230 0.483217 0.324274 0.178167 0.516488 66.992345 STABLE
2025-10-31 2.40 2.30 0.619344 -0.124696 -0.388063 0.354995 -0.231643 -0.648549 0.230087 61.975289 STABLE
2025-11-30 2.29 2.23 0.417749 -0.260728 -0.820327 0.194172 -0.231643 -1.094457 0.034273 58.545110 STABLE
2025-12-31 2.26 2.25 0.343858 -0.442103 -0.729179 0.219602 -0.395156 -0.674491 -0.000898 57.928992 STABLE
2026-01-31 2.46 2.32 0.687716 -0.351415 0.054688 0.366923 -0.422408 -0.024981 0.273216 62.730811 STABLE
Methodology: Market Implied Inflation Signal