Squeeze & Exhaustion Risk Indicators

CoT tactical squeeze and exhaustion risk signals.

As of 2026-01-20

Gemini Summary

Signal Summary:

  • The Squeeze & Exhaustion Breadth signal currently shows Moderate Squeeze Risk and Normal Exhaustion Risk as of 2026-01-20 (1). This indicates a transition towards heightened vulnerability to short-covering while trend fatigue remains typical.
  • Conviction Band: Medium | Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence | Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

  • The "Squeeze_z" component rose to 0.535634, crossing the 0.5 threshold for Moderate Squeeze Risk (1).
  • Conversely, "Exhaustion_z" is at -0.002458, keeping it within the Normal range below 0.5 (1).
  • Conditional Invalidation: A significant concentration of stress in a single, macro-critical sector could be underrepresented by the breadth measure (1).

Scenario Balance:

  • Base Case dominant: Moderate Squeeze Risk persists with Normal Exhaustion, driven by current z-scores near the moderate threshold (1).
  • Upside secondary: Squeeze Risk recedes to Normal if fewer markets show squeeze flags.
  • Downside residual: Squeeze Risk elevates to High, or Exhaustion Risk rises to Moderate/High, if more markets become vulnerable.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

  • Time Horizon: Tactical (weeks) | Rationale: The signal aggregates market-level tactical flags for short-term risk assessment (1).
  • Aggregation Weight Hint: Medium | Justification: Provides a valuable tactical overlay, but is not a primary driver for structural macro views.

Macro Relevance:

  • Macro dimension informed: Market Sentiment, Pricing Dynamics, and Liquidity.
  • Cycle position: Primarily relevant for identifying tactical vulnerabilities within any economic cycle phase.
  • Typical interaction with other macro signals: Supplements broader risk gauges like the VIX (2) or Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Positioning Tone (3) to assess market fragility.

Data & References:

  • df_cot_signals: Latest observation date 2026-01-20.
  • The Squeeze_z (0.535634) and Exhaustion_z (-0.002458) values for 2026-01-20 are most influential (1).
  • Additional public datasets: Sector-specific CoT data to gauge concentrated risk, and the VIX (2) for broader market volatility context.

Squeeze & Exhaustion Risk Chart

Signal chart

Market breadth of squeeze and exhaustion risk signals.

Squeeze & Exhaustion Risk Table▸
Report_Date n_markets squeeze_count exhaustion_count crowded_long_count crowded_short_count squeeze_share exhaustion_share Squeeze_z Exhaustion_z Squeeze_Regime Exhaustion_Regime
197 2025-10-14 351 14 16 99 84 0.039886 0.045584 -0.694320 -0.036331 Normal Normal
198 2025-10-21 358 17 18 93 85 0.047486 0.050279 -0.363241 0.179327 Normal Normal
199 2025-10-28 361 12 23 97 80 0.033241 0.063712 -0.983799 0.796297 Normal Moderate Exhaustion Risk
200 2025-11-04 362 21 25 101 87 0.058011 0.069061 0.095261 1.041975 Normal High Exhaustion Risk
201 2025-11-10 358 21 24 100 91 0.058659 0.067039 0.123498 0.949118 Normal Moderate Exhaustion Risk
202 2025-11-18 366 19 22 95 86 0.051913 0.060109 -0.170407 0.630826 Normal Moderate Exhaustion Risk
203 2025-11-25 367 20 21 89 88 0.054496 0.057221 -0.057869 0.498151 Normal Normal
204 2025-12-02 364 17 25 88 87 0.046703 0.068681 -0.397339 1.024547 Normal High Exhaustion Risk
205 2025-12-09 366 23 21 85 84 0.062842 0.057377 0.305692 0.505332 Normal Moderate Exhaustion Risk
206 2025-12-16 365 22 16 86 84 0.060274 0.043836 0.193841 -0.116638 Normal Normal
207 2025-12-23 364 16 14 83 85 0.043956 0.038462 -0.517018 -0.363474 Normal Normal
208 2025-12-30 362 15 15 84 81 0.041436 0.041436 -0.626779 -0.226834 Normal Normal
209 2026-01-06 346 14 17 76 77 0.040462 0.049133 -0.669211 0.126673 Normal Normal
210 2026-01-13 368 19 15 84 84 0.051630 0.040761 -0.182698 -0.257864 Normal Normal
211 2026-01-20 367 25 17 88 81 0.068120 0.046322 0.535634 -0.002458 Moderate Squeeze Risk Normal
Methodology: Squeeze & Exhaustion Risk