Federal Reserve Watcher · Rate Decision | Date: March 16/17, 2026
Probabilistic assessment of the next Federal Reserve policy decision
Final Decision Engine | Meeting: May 2026 (Upcoming)
Inputs Used: Macro Signal Synthesiser; Fed Tone Decoder; Fed Projections Synthesiser; Beige Book Summary.
- Macro Signal: CUT (confidence: MEDIUM) - Realised inflation is COOL (1) and labour momentum is SOFTENING (2), justifying a move toward neutral.
- Behavioural Feasibility: HOLD-BIASED - The March 18 Statement maintained the target range to assess "extent and timing" of future adjustments (3).
- Fed Worldview: HOLD - Projections prepare for a 2026 growth acceleration to 2.3% and 2.4% inflation, suggesting caution against premature easing (4).
- Real-Economy Confirmation: MIXED - Manufacturing improved in 8 districts, but five districts reported flat or declining activity and rising price sensitivity (5).
Divergence (this is signal):
- Macro says: CUT
- Behaviour says: HOLD
- Fed worldview says: HOLD
Decision Probabilities (sum = 100%):
- CUT: 25%
- HOLD: 75%
- HIKE: 0%
Forward Guidance Bias: DOVISH - Language shift toward "extent and timing" of adjustments (3) and internal dissent by Miran (6) signal a pivot camp is forming.
Surprise Risk: MEDIUM - Source: Explicit dissent within the committee (3) and debate over whether recent data is "signal or noise" (7).
Final Call: Outcome: HOLD with dovish guidance.
The information presented is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to individual objectives, financial situation, or needs. You should consider whether it is appropriate for your circumstances and seek independent advice where necessary.