USD - Individual Market Analysis

COT signals and diagnostics for USD futures.

As of 2026-01-20

Gemini Summary

Signal Summary:

  • The USD Index futures market exhibits a neutral positioning state as of 2026-01-20, with no clear directional bias or imminent reversal risk (1). The market structure reflects a balanced short bias.
  • Conviction Band: Low | Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence | Internal Conflict Flag: No

Key Dynamics:

  • Speculative net positioning stands at -21.7% of Open Interest with a z-score of -0.56, while hedgers are net long at 21.3% with a z-score of 0.52.
  • Over the last four weeks, there has been a long reduction flow of -7.4% (1).
  • The market shows no signs of crowding, squeeze risk, or exhaustion risk, and the hedger pressure regime is neutral.
  • Conditional Invalidation: A rapid shift to extreme speculative positioning (z-score exceeding ±1.5) or the activation of bullish/bearish reversal flags would invalidate this neutral assessment.

Scenario Balance:

  • Base Case dominant: Continued range-bound or moderate price action, consistent with balanced positioning and lack of extreme conditions.
  • Upside secondary: A sustained build in speculative long positions, potentially driven by macro catalysts, could lead to USD strengthening.
  • Downside residual: A significant increase in speculative short positioning or a rapid shift towards hedger selling pressure could trigger USD weakness.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

  • Time Horizon: Tactical (weeks). The signal focuses on short-term positioning dynamics and reversal risks.
  • Aggregation Weight Hint: Low. The current neutral state provides limited directional input for broader macro composites.

Macro Relevance:

  • This signal primarily informs FX dynamics and market sentiment.
  • It reflects a neutral phase within the currency cycle, lacking strong directional cues.
  • In combination with other signals, it helps contextualize overall USD regime strength (2) and broader risk-on/risk-off sentiment (3).

Data & References:

  • Commitment of Traders (COT) Data for USD Index - ICE Futures U.S., latest observation 2026-01-20 (1).
  • Most influential datapoints are `Spec_Net_%OI` (-21.7), `Hedger_Net_%OI` (21.3), `Spec_zscore` (-0.56), `Hedger_zscore` (0.52), `Flow_4w` (-7.4), and `reversal_regime` (No_Clear_Reversal).
  • Additional public datasets that would improve depth or reliability include the FRED Broad Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index (2) and a global risk-on/risk-off positioning aggregate (3).

USD CoT Diagnostics Chart

Signal chart

USD futures: CoT diagnostics, positioning, crowding, reversal risk, and price overlay.

USD CoT Signals Table▸
Report_Date Market_and_Exchange_Names Spec_Net_%OI Hedger_Net_%OI Spec_zscore Hedger_zscore Flow_4w controller controller_gap_%OI spec_extreme_1y hedger_extreme_1y any_extreme_1y extreme_side flow_4w_label flow_4w_strength crowded_long crowded_short squeeze_risk exhaustion_risk hedger_pressure_regime bullish_reversal_risk bearish_reversal_risk reversal_regime market_structure_regime positioning_tension_score risk_flags_count synthetic_state CFTC_Contract_Market_Code CFTC_Market_Code CFTC_Region_Code CFTC_Commodity_Code Commodity_Class Commodity_SubClass Region_Class COT_Index_Spec Spec_Net_Contracts Hedger_Net_Contracts hedger_pressure specs_vs_hedgers_divergence source Market and Exchange Names CFTC Contract Market Code CFTC Region Code CFTC Commodity Code hedger_deep_short hedger_deep_long reversal_score Price
192 2025-10-14 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -40.2 37.1 -1.898620 1.699115 -6.7 Balanced 3.1 False False False None Long_Reduction -6.7 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Long False False No_Clear_Reversal Balanced_Short_Bias 3.597735 0 High_Tension_Low_Flags NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 0.000000 -14933 13766 False True legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False True 0 0.045869
193 2025-10-21 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -43.4 41.1 -1.928744 1.779894 -17.8 Balanced 2.3 False False False None Long_Reduction -17.8 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Long False False No_Clear_Reversal Balanced_Short_Bias 3.708638 0 High_Tension_Low_Flags NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 0.000000 -15367 14537 False True legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False True 0 0.040060
194 2025-10-28 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -46.1 45.6 -1.929677 1.863648 -7.9 Balanced 0.5 False False False None Long_Reduction -7.9 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Long False False No_Clear_Reversal Balanced_Short_Bias 3.793325 0 High_Tension_Low_Flags NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 0.000000 -16126 15939 False True legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False True 0 0.038655
195 2025-11-04 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -35.8 33.9 -1.437605 1.333939 -1.9 Balanced 1.9 False False False None Long_Reduction -1.9 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Long False False No_Clear_Reversal Balanced_Short_Bias 2.771544 0 High_Tension_Low_Flags NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 11.482720 -15562 14704 False True legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False True 0 0.033865
196 2025-11-10 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -36.5 35.4 -1.414521 1.344824 3.7 Balanced 1.1 False False False None Long_Build 3.7 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Long True False Bullish_Reversal_Risk Balanced_Long_Bias 2.759346 1 High_Tension_Low_Flags NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 10.702341 -15627 15172 False True legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False True 1 0.035240
197 2025-11-18 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -36.3 34.1 -1.359372 1.252009 7.1 Balanced 2.2 False False False None Long_Build 7.1 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Long True False Bullish_Reversal_Risk Balanced_Long_Bias 2.611381 1 High_Tension_Low_Flags NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 10.925307 -16108 15131 False True legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False True 1 0.036015
198 2025-11-25 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -34.7 33.7 -1.255897 1.198515 11.4 Balanced 1.0 False False False None Long_Build 11.4 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Long True False Bullish_Reversal_Risk Balanced_Long_Bias 2.454411 1 High_Tension_Low_Flags NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 12.709030 -16347 15883 False True legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False True 1 0.032690
199 2025-12-02 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -37.0 35.2 -1.302410 1.215718 -1.2 Balanced 1.8 False False False None Long_Reduction -1.2 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Long False False No_Clear_Reversal Balanced_Short_Bias 2.518128 0 High_Tension_Low_Flags NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 10.144928 -16218 15404 False True legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False True 0 0.033163
200 2025-12-09 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -32.3 31.7 -1.091150 1.052211 4.2 Balanced 0.6 False False False None Long_Build 4.2 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Long True False Bullish_Reversal_Risk Balanced_Long_Bias 2.143361 1 High_Tension_Low_Flags NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 15.384615 -13874 13628 False True legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False True 1 0.030882
201 2025-12-16 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -17.0 19.2 -0.488620 0.560006 19.3 Balanced -2.2 False False False None Long_Build 19.3 False False False False Hedgers_Neutral False False No_Clear_Reversal Balanced_Long_Bias 1.048626 0 Normal NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 32.441472 -4595 5189 False False legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False False 0 0.025533
202 2025-12-23 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -14.3 16.9 -0.366098 0.450491 20.4 Balanced -2.6 False False False None Long_Build 20.4 False False False False Hedgers_Neutral False False No_Clear_Reversal Balanced_Long_Bias 0.816589 0 Normal NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 35.451505 -4021 4777 False False legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False False 0 0.026658
203 2025-12-30 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -13.6 15.8 -0.319275 0.386220 23.4 Balanced -2.2 False False False None Long_Build 23.4 False False False False Hedgers_Neutral False False No_Clear_Reversal Balanced_Long_Bias 0.705496 0 Normal NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 36.231884 -3960 4588 False False legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False False 0 0.025810
204 2026-01-06 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -12.7 14.6 -0.263235 0.316781 19.6 Balanced -1.9 False False False None Long_Build 19.6 False False False False Hedgers_Neutral False False No_Clear_Reversal Balanced_Long_Bias 0.580016 0 Normal NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 37.235229 -3831 4398 False False legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False False 0 0.027334
205 2026-01-13 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -12.5 12.6 -0.229241 0.212009 4.5 Balanced -0.1 False False False None Long_Build 4.5 False False False False Hedgers_Neutral False False No_Clear_Reversal Balanced_Long_Bias 0.441250 0 Normal NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 37.458194 -3730 3739 False False legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False False 0 0.043395
206 2026-01-20 USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. -21.7 21.3 -0.561709 0.522963 -7.4 Balanced 0.4 False False False None Long_Reduction -7.4 False False False False Hedgers_Neutral False False No_Clear_Reversal Balanced_Short_Bias 1.084672 0 Normal NaN NaN NaN NaN Other Unknown Other / Unknown 27.201784 -6418 6305 False False legacy USD INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. 098662 1.0 98.0 False False 0 0.047901
Methodology: USD CoT Signals