Metals Comparative Signal

Regime-aware, multi-factor cross-metal signal with rolling relative value, z-scores, momentum, and macro USD adjustment.

As of 2026-05-26

Gemini Summary

Signal Summary:

  • Configuration statement: Given an Aluminium Z-score of 3.10 and a Copper Z-score of 2.54, this setup aligns with Downward-biased price paths and Elevated volatility, where the dominant risk is Mean reversion, not Trend continuation. (1)
  • The signal currently identifies a "Moderate Outflow Bias" within a "high_vol_dislocation" regime, driven by extreme overvaluation in industrial metals relative to historical norms. (1)
  • Conviction Band: High; Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence; Internal Conflict Flag: No. Signal Stability Assessment: Deteriorating; Threshold Proximity: Near; Revision Sensitivity: Low. (1)

Methodology Applied:

  • Standardisation Layer: Z-scores exceeding 2.0 trigger "Tactical Trim" or "Exhaustion Risk" status. (1)
  • Relative Value Layer: Signals an "Overvalued" status when rolling percentiles for cross-metal ratios exceed 95.0. (1)
  • Regime Weighting: The "high_vol_dislocation" profile assigns higher priority (0.4) to relative value diagnostics. (1)
  • Metals Comparative Signal data latest observation: 2026-05-26. (1)

Key Dynamics:

  • Extreme Z-scores in Aluminium (3.10) and Copper (2.54) indicate price levels are statistically stretched, triggering exhaustion flags. (1)
  • Silver displays significant relative overvaluation against Gold (97.4th percentile) and Platinum (98.4th percentile). (1)
  • Negative 3-month momentum (-0.159) suggests the recent price peak is fading into a broader outflow phase. (1)
  • Conditional Invalidation: A reversal of the Silver vs. Gold overvaluation percentile below 95.0 or a shift to USD weakness. (1)
  • Signal stability is deteriorating as prices retreat from May 13 peaks into a more volatile dislocation regime. (1)

Scenario Balance:

  • Base case dominant: Continued mean reversion as industrial metal "exhaustion" leads to broader complex liquidation. (1)
  • Upside risk: Supply-side shock in Copper or Aluminium triggers a "short squeeze" despite overvalued diagnostics. (1)
  • Downside risk: Accelerated liquidity withdrawal (outflow bias) leads to a high-volatility price collapse. (1)

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

  • Tactical (weeks): Based on 3-month momentum windows and standardisation "trim" signals. (1)
  • Aggregation Weight Hint: High; strong internal consistency between relative value, momentum, and statistical z-scores. (1)

Macro Relevance:

  • Informs industrial demand and pricing pressure dimensions. (1)
  • The signal implies a liquidity-driven exhaustion mechanism where high-beta metals (Silver, Copper) are losing support. (1)
  • Cycle position: Not determined. (1)
  • Typically acts as a lead indicator for broader commodity sector cooling when relative value dispersion peaks. (1)

Regime Context:

  • Persistent: The "high_vol_dislocation" regime has remained active through the recent May price volatility. (1)
  • Direction of change: Strengthening outflow bias as prices stabilise below mid-month highs. (1)

Model Limitations:

  • Regime detection is subject to hysteresis effects which may lag sudden price reversals. (1)
  • Z-score percentiles assume a normal distribution which may be violated during extreme dislocations. (1)

Data & References:

  • Metals Comparative Signal (2026-05-26). (1)
  • Influential datapoints: Aluminium Z-score (3.10), Silver/Gold Ratio percentile (97.5). (1)
  • Public datasets: LME inventory levels and CFTC Commitment of Traders reports would enhance positioning depth.

Metals Comparative Dashboard v1.2 (Regime-Adaptive)

Signal chart

Rolling relative value, regime-aware z-scores, momentum and composite layers, plus silver regime score and z-score percentile context.

Source Data Table▸

Latest Signal Classification

Metal Price ZScore Signal Confidence
Aluminium 3683.0000 3.099 Exhaustion Risk 0.800
Gold 4520.5000 1.599 Neutral 0.640
Palladium 1383.0000 0.841 Neutral 0.337
Platinum 1953.4000 1.696 Neutral 0.679
Zinc 109.9062 -0.593 Neutral 0.237
Copper 6.3820 2.537 Tactical Trim 0.800
Silver 76.4550 1.999 Tactical Trim 0.800

Composite Signal Layer

AsOf RelativeValueLayer StandardisationLayer MomentumLayer Momentum3M USDStrength MacroFactor ScorePreMacro CompositeScore Regime DetectedRegime DetectedRegimeRaw RegimeScore HysteresisActive SilverZScorePercentile WeightProfile WeightRV WeightSTD WeightMOM ConvictionScale
2026-05-26 -0.6 -0.5 -0.25 -0.159272 neutral 1.0 -0.34875 -0.34875 Moderate Outflow Bias high_vol_dislocation high_vol_dislocation 0.054483 False 69.603175 high_vol_dislocation 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.75

Regime Context

DetectedRegime DetectedRegimeRaw RegimeScore HysteresisActive SilverZScorePercentile WeightProfile
high_vol_dislocation high_vol_dislocation 0.054483 False 69.603175 high_vol_dislocation

Recent Price History (15 rows)

Ticker Date Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Copper Aluminium Zinc Oil
2026-05-06 4681.8999 76.811 2048.7000 1546.0 6.1365 3498.00 110.7969 95.08
2026-05-07 4699.7998 79.701 2048.1001 1517.8 6.1275 3480.00 110.5156 94.81
2026-05-08 4720.3999 80.395 2047.2000 1482.6 6.2490 3507.00 110.7500 95.42
2026-05-11 4718.7002 85.485 2115.5000 1513.8 6.4135 3592.50 110.4062 98.07
2026-05-12 4677.6001 85.130 2110.0000 1485.7 6.4850 3652.50 110.0312 102.18
2026-05-13 4697.7002 88.888 2187.1001 1531.0 6.6355 3837.75 110.0000 101.02
2026-05-14 4678.1001 84.912 2083.5000 1456.6 6.5675 3892.00 110.1094 101.17
2026-05-15 4555.7998 77.161 1981.3000 1422.9 6.2515 3791.50 109.1719 105.42
2026-05-18 4552.5000 77.073 1968.1000 1417.8 6.2720 3850.00 109.0156 108.66
2026-05-19 4506.2998 74.828 1933.8000 1360.2 6.1650 3874.00 108.7031 107.77
2026-05-20 4531.2998 75.851 1949.8000 1373.8 6.2905 3910.75 109.4062 98.26
2026-05-21 4539.7998 76.414 1955.1000 1383.4 6.2570 3941.00 109.2344 96.35
2026-05-22 4521.0000 75.893 1931.6000 1358.0 6.3420 3963.50 109.2500 96.60
2026-05-24 4521.0000 75.893 1931.6000 1358.0 6.3420 3963.50 109.2500 96.60
2026-05-26 4520.5000 76.455 1953.4000 1383.0 6.3820 3683.00 109.9062 92.42

Recent Ratio History (15 rows)

Ticker Date Gold_Silver_Ratio Gold_Silver_Ratio_RollingPercentile Gold_Oil_Ratio Gold_Oil_Ratio_RollingPercentile Copper_Gold_Ratio Copper_Gold_Ratio_RollingPercentile Zinc_Copper_Ratio Zinc_Copper_Ratio_RollingPercentile Silver_vs_Gold_Ratio Silver_vs_Platinum_Ratio Silver_vs_Copper_Ratio Silver_vs_Oil_Ratio
2026-05-06 60.9535 3.3333 49.2417 81.1905 0.0013 13.9683 18.0554 0.0794 0.0164 0.0375 12.5171 0.8079
2026-05-07 58.9679 1.9048 49.5707 81.4286 0.0013 13.4921 18.0360 0.0794 0.0170 0.0389 13.0071 0.8406
2026-05-08 58.7151 1.8254 49.4697 81.3492 0.0013 14.6825 17.7228 0.0794 0.0170 0.0393 12.8653 0.8425
2026-05-11 55.1992 1.1111 48.1156 80.0794 0.0014 15.5556 17.2147 0.0794 0.0181 0.0404 13.3289 0.8717
2026-05-12 54.9466 1.1111 45.7780 78.8889 0.0014 16.1905 16.9670 0.0794 0.0182 0.0403 13.1272 0.8331
2026-05-13 52.8497 0.9524 46.5027 79.2857 0.0014 17.1429 16.5775 0.0794 0.0189 0.0406 13.3958 0.8799
2026-05-14 55.0935 1.2698 46.2400 78.9683 0.0014 16.7460 16.7658 0.1587 0.0182 0.0408 12.9291 0.8393
2026-05-15 59.0428 2.3810 43.2157 76.3492 0.0014 15.8730 17.4633 0.3968 0.0169 0.0389 12.3428 0.7319
2026-05-18 59.0674 2.5397 41.8967 75.7937 0.0014 15.9524 17.3813 0.3968 0.0169 0.0392 12.2884 0.7093
2026-05-19 60.2221 3.3333 41.8140 75.7143 0.0014 15.7937 17.6323 0.5556 0.0166 0.0387 12.1376 0.6943
2026-05-20 59.7395 2.9365 46.1154 78.8889 0.0014 16.5873 17.3923 0.4762 0.0167 0.0389 12.0580 0.7719
2026-05-21 59.4106 2.6984 47.1178 79.4444 0.0014 16.1111 17.4579 0.5556 0.0168 0.0391 12.2126 0.7931
2026-05-22 59.5707 3.0159 46.8012 79.2063 0.0014 17.0635 17.2264 0.3968 0.0168 0.0393 11.9667 0.7856
2026-05-24 59.5707 3.0556 46.8012 79.1667 0.0014 17.1032 17.2264 0.4365 0.0168 0.0393 11.9667 0.7856
2026-05-26 59.1263 2.6190 48.9126 80.5556 0.0014 17.6984 17.2213 0.3968 0.0169 0.0391 11.9798 0.8273

Structured Output JSON

{
  "signal_id": "metals_comparative_signal",
  "as_of_date": "2026-05-26",
  "signals": {
    "relative_value": [
      {
        "name": "Silver_vs_Gold",
        "status": "Overvalued",
        "signal": -1.0,
        "rolling_percentile": 97.46031746031746,
        "active_cutoffs": {
          "undervalued_percentile": 5.0,
          "overvalued_percentile": 95.0
        }
      },
      {
        "name": "Silver_vs_Platinum",
        "status": "Overvalued",
        "signal": -1.0,
        "rolling_percentile": 98.4126984126984,
        "active_cutoffs": {
          "undervalued_percentile": 5.0,
          "overvalued_percentile": 95.0
        }
      },
      {
        "name": "Silver_vs_Copper",
        "status": "Neutral",
        "signal": 0.0,
        "rolling_percentile": 91.5079365079365,
        "active_cutoffs": {
          "undervalued_percentile": 5.0,
          "overvalued_percentile": 95.0
        }
      },
      {
        "name": "Silver_vs_Oil",
        "status": "Neutral",
        "signal": 0.0,
        "rolling_percentile": 91.74603174603175,
        "active_cutoffs": {
          "undervalued_percentile": 5.0,
          "overvalued_percentile": 95.0
        }
      }
    ],
    "standardisation": [
      {
        "metal": "Gold",
        "zscore": 1.5992445875581638,
        "zscore_percentile": 46.34920634920635,
        "signal": "Neutral",
        "confidence": 0.6396978350232656
      },
      {
        "metal": "Silver",
        "zscore": 1.9988027157735018,
        "zscore_percentile": 69.6031746031746,
        "signal": "Tactical Trim",
        "confidence": 0.7995210863094008
      },
      {
        "metal": "Platinum",
        "zscore": 1.6962559173008533,
        "zscore_percentile": 78.88888888888889,
        "signal": "Neutral",
        "confidence": 0.6785023669203414
      },
      {
        "metal": "Palladium",
        "zscore": 0.8414111162172978,
        "zscore_percentile": 81.11111111111111,
        "signal": "Neutral",
        "confidence": 0.33656444648691913
      },
      {
        "metal": "Copper",
        "zscore": 2.5366553567568326,
        "zscore_percentile": 93.25396825396825,
        "signal": "Tactical Trim",
        "confidence": 0.8
      },
      {
        "metal": "Aluminium",
        "zscore": 3.098984359411844,
        "zscore_percentile": 95.23809523809523,
        "signal": "Exhaustion Risk",
        "confidence": 0.8
      },
      {
        "metal": "Zinc",
        "zscore": -0.5925474403289135,
        "zscore_percentile": 58.730158730158735,
        "signal": "Neutral",
        "confidence": 0.23701897613156542
      }
    ]
  },
  "regime_context": {
    "detected_regime_raw": "high_vol_dislocation",
    "detected_regime": "high_vol_dislocation",
    "regime_score": 0.054483097844872444,
    "hysteresis_active": false,
    "zscore_percentile": 69.6031746031746,
    "composite_weight_profile": "high_vol_dislocation"
  },
  "composite_signal": {
    "relative_value_layer": -0.6000000000000001,
    "standardisation_layer": -0.5,
    "momentum_layer": -0.25,
    "momentum_3m": -0.15927160715788347,
    "usd_strength": "neutral",
    "macro_adjustment_factor": 1.0,
    "score_pre_macro": -0.34875,
    "score": -0.34875,
    "regime": "Moderate Outflow Bias",
    "detected_regime": "high_vol_dislocation",
    "detected_regime_raw": "high_vol_dislocation",
    "regime_score": 0.054483097844872444,
    "hysteresis_active": false,
    "zscore_percentile": 69.6031746031746,
    "weight_profile": "high_vol_dislocation",
    "weights": {
      "relative_value": 0.4,
      "standardisation": 0.3,
      "momentum": 0.3
    },
    "conviction_scale": 0.75
  }
}
Methodology
The information on this website is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. It does not take into account any individual objectives, financial situation, or needs.

All views expressed are personal, based on publicly available information, and do not represent the views of any employer or reflect any proprietary or internal analysis. This information should not be relied upon for making investment decisions.

No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information, and no liability is accepted for any loss arising directly or indirectly from its use.