Durable Goods ex-Transportation Signal

Signal Summary:

• Configuration statement: Given the absence of reported values for YoY_pct and 3M_pct, this setup aligns with Indeterminate price paths and Indeterminate volatility, where the dominant risk is Data uncertainty, not trend continuation.
• The current state is unclassified due to a lack of observation data in the provided dataset (1).
• Conviction Band: Low; Interpretation Confidence: Low Confidence; Internal Conflict Flag: Yes.

Methodology Applied:

• A Bullish regime is triggered if YoY_pct exceeds +5% or 3M_pct exceeds +1% (1).
• A Bearish regime is classified if YoY_pct falls below -3% or 3M_pct falls below -1% (1).
• The signal utilizes Manufacturer’s New Orders (ADXTNO) to strip transportation volatility and capture core demand (1).
• Durable Goods ex-Transportation Signal (1): latest observation date not provided.

Key Dynamics:

• Main quantitative drivers: The interaction between YoY growth and 3-month momentum of core durable goods orders.
• Current state: Indeterminate; the signal cannot verify if manufacturing demand is firming or softening without level data.
• Internal tensions: Missing data prevents the calculation of the robust z-score (YoY_z) used for historical scaling.
• Conditional Invalidation: A confirmed 3M_pct value below -1% would force an immediate Bearish classification.

Scenario Balance:

• Base case dominant; risks balanced.
• Upside risk: A return to core order growth >5% YoY, suggesting a re-acceleration in manufacturing.
• Downside risk: A contraction in core orders below -3% YoY, flagging a cyclical slowdown.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

• Time Horizon: Cyclical (months) as core durable goods reflect intermediate business investment cycles.
• Aggregation Weight Hint: Low, necessitated by current data gaps and the resulting low confidence score.

Macro Relevance:

• Macro dimension: Measures capital expenditure momentum and core real-sector demand.
• Cycle position: Mid-to-late cycle indicator, providing a lead on industrial activity.
• Interaction: Typically converges with the Capex Intent Signal (2) and Industrial Production Signal (3).

Data & References:

• FRED Series ADXTNO (Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods Excluding Transportation): date not provided.
• Data timeliness cannot be assessed; Data Freshness: Unknown.
• Additional reliability would be gained from incorporating ISM Manufacturing New Orders data.