Investor Anatomy

Gemini Summary

Signal Summary:

Configuration statement: Given extreme Z-scores for Aluminium (3.506) and Silver (2.764) alongside a -0.775 composite score, this setup aligns with Downward-biased price paths and Elevated volatility, where the dominant risk is Mean reversion, not Trend continuation.
The signal is currently in a Strong Outflow Bias regime, characterized by broad sector exhaustion and extreme valuation stretch.
Conviction Band: High; Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence; Internal Conflict Flag: No. Signal Stability Assessment: Deteriorating; Threshold Proximity: Far; Revision Sensitivity: Unknown.

Methodology Applied:

Standardisation Layer: Individual signals are governed by Z-scores; values exceeding 2.0 trigger "Strong Sell" classifications (1).
Relative Value Layer: Aggregates rolling percentiles of metal ratios; a -1.0 score indicates sector-wide overvaluation (2).
Macro Adjustment: Neutral USD strength (factor 1.0) ensures the outflow bias is driven by underlying metal price exhaustion rather than currency effects (3).
Dataset: Metals Comparative Matrix (Observation: 2026-03-17).

Key Dynamics:

Main drivers: Extreme Z-scores in Aluminium (3.506), Silver (2.764), Platinum (2.541), and Gold (2.488) mandate "Strong Sell" flags due to mean-reversion pressure (1)(2).
Momentum: 3M momentum (0.314) remains positive but is failing to support current price levels, creating a bearish divergence with valuation layers.
Internal Offset: Zinc remains the sole outlier (Z-score 0.296, "HOLD"), suggesting relative stability compared to the broader complex.
Conditional Invalidation: Reversion of the Composite Score to > -0.5 or a shift in the Regime to "Neutral."

Scenario Balance:

Base Case dominant: Systematic mean reversion as prices retreat from extreme Z-score territory.
Downside secondary: Outflow bias accelerates into a liquidation event if support levels (e.g., Gold 5000) fail.
Upside residual: Sudden USD weakness or supply disruptions forcing a further "overbought" extension.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

Tactical (weeks): High Z-scores typically precede near-term price corrections or consolidation.
Aggregation Weight Hint: High due to uniform "Strong Sell" signals across 85% of the monitored complex.

Macro Relevance:

Informs the pricing and sentiment macro dimensions (4).
Economic mechanism: Demand exhaustion; extreme price levels are currently detached from historical norms, suggesting a cooling in cyclical demand impulse.
Cycle position: Not determined.

Regime Context:

The regime is newly persistent; prices have declined steadily since early March (Gold falling from 5294 to 5009).
Direction of change: Strengthening outflow bias as more metals enter the "Strong Sell" standardisation zone.

Model Limitations:

Relies on rolling historical percentiles which may lag in "new era" structural shifts.
Momentum overlay may generate late signals during high-velocity price reversals.

Data & References:

Latest observation: 2026-03-17.
Influential points: Aluminium Price (3363.25) and Gold_Silver_Ratio Percentile (96.5%).
Additional data: Monitoring Copper CoT and Gold CoT for positioning-led squeeze risks would improve reliability.

Metals Comparative Dashboard v1.1

Rolling relative value, z-score, momentum, and macro-adjusted composite layers.

Source Data Table▸

Latest Signal Classification

Metal	Price	ZScore	Signal	Confidence
Zinc	111.8594	0.296	HOLD	0.148
Aluminium	3363.2500	3.506	STRONG SELL	1.000
Copper	5.7555	2.117	STRONG SELL	1.000
Gold	5009.0000	2.488	STRONG SELL	1.000
Palladium	1630.0000	1.803	STRONG SELL	0.902
Platinum	2129.5000	2.541	STRONG SELL	1.000
Silver	80.6400	2.764	STRONG SELL	1.000

Composite Signal Layer

AsOf	RelativeValueLayer	StandardisationLayer	MomentumLayer	Momentum3M	USDStrength	MacroFactor	ScorePreMacro	CompositeScore	Regime
2026-03-17	-1.0	-1.0	0.5	0.314168	neutral	1.0	-0.775	-0.775	Strong Outflow Bias

Recent Price History (15 rows)

Date	Gold	Silver	Platinum	Palladium	Copper	Aluminium	Zinc	Oil
2026-02-25	5206.3999	90.939	2325.6001	1834.1	5.9795	3081.75	113.1719	65.42
2026-02-26	5176.5000	86.998	2230.7000	1748.6	5.9470	3071.75	113.4219	65.21
2026-02-27	5230.5000	92.682	2365.6001	1792.2	6.0045	3044.25	113.8594	67.02
2026-03-02	5294.3999	88.284	2311.8999	1762.6	5.8945	3109.25	113.1562	71.23
2026-03-03	5107.3999	82.923	2074.8000	1635.0	5.7735	3165.75	113.1094	74.56
2026-03-04	5120.2002	82.633	2154.7000	1667.8	5.8550	3279.75	112.9062	74.66
2026-03-05	5065.2998	81.687	2130.0000	1620.2	5.7530	3215.75	112.4219	81.01
2026-03-06	5146.1001	83.816	2142.3999	1631.7	5.7570	3327.50	112.5625	90.90
2026-03-09	5091.5000	84.032	2169.6001	1662.2	5.8005	3292.00	112.4844	94.77
2026-03-10	5229.7002	89.083	2235.0000	1668.7	5.9040	3322.00	112.5781	83.45
2026-03-11	5167.3999	85.065	2205.0000	1624.4	5.8455	3369.50	112.1250	87.25
2026-03-12	5115.7998	84.670	2160.0000	1621.9	5.8245	3464.00	111.5625	95.73
2026-03-13	5052.5000	80.914	2036.6000	1554.1	5.7145	3383.25	111.5625	98.71
2026-03-16	4994.0000	80.263	2089.5000	1584.5	5.7905	3289.50	112.0312	93.50
2026-03-17	5009.0000	80.640	2129.5000	1630.0	5.7555	3363.25	111.8594	95.76

Recent Ratio History (15 rows)

Date	Gold_Silver_Ratio	Gold_Silver_Ratio_RollingPercentile	Gold_Oil_Ratio	Gold_Oil_Ratio_RollingPercentile	Copper_Gold_Ratio	Copper_Gold_Ratio_RollingPercentile	Zinc_Copper_Ratio	Zinc_Copper_Ratio_RollingPercentile	Silver_vs_Gold_Ratio	Silver_vs_Platinum_Ratio	Silver_vs_Copper_Ratio	Silver_vs_Oil_Ratio
2026-02-25	57.2516	1.3492	79.5842	99.2857	0.0011	0.3175	18.9266	0.9524	0.0175	0.0391	15.2085	1.3901
2026-02-26	59.5014	1.9048	79.3820	99.1270	0.0011	0.4762	19.0721	1.2698	0.0168	0.0390	14.6289	1.3341
2026-02-27	56.4349	1.1905	78.0439	98.3333	0.0011	0.3175	18.9623	1.1111	0.0177	0.0392	15.4354	1.3829
2026-03-02	59.9701	2.1429	74.3282	95.7143	0.0011	0.2381	19.1969	2.0635	0.0167	0.0382	14.9774	1.2394
2026-03-03	61.5921	2.7778	68.5005	93.7302	0.0011	0.3175	19.5911	3.3333	0.0162	0.0400	14.3627	1.1122
2026-03-04	61.9631	3.0159	68.5802	93.7302	0.0011	0.3968	19.2837	2.3016	0.0161	0.0384	14.1132	1.1068
2026-03-05	62.0086	3.0952	62.5268	91.5873	0.0011	0.3968	19.5414	3.2540	0.0161	0.0384	14.1990	1.0084
2026-03-06	61.3976	2.6190	56.6128	89.7619	0.0011	0.3175	19.5523	3.4127	0.0163	0.0391	14.5590	0.9221
2026-03-09	60.5900	2.5397	53.7248	88.1746	0.0011	0.5556	19.3922	2.7778	0.0165	0.0387	14.4870	0.8867
2026-03-10	58.7059	1.7460	62.6687	91.6667	0.0011	0.3968	19.0681	1.3492	0.0170	0.0399	15.0886	1.0675
2026-03-11	60.7465	2.6984	59.2252	91.1111	0.0011	0.5556	19.1814	2.0635	0.0165	0.0386	14.5522	0.9750
2026-03-12	60.4205	2.5397	53.4399	87.6190	0.0011	0.7143	19.1540	1.7460	0.0166	0.0392	14.5369	0.8845
2026-03-13	62.4428	3.6508	51.1853	84.6825	0.0011	0.5556	19.5227	3.3333	0.0160	0.0397	14.1594	0.8197
2026-03-16	62.2204	3.5714	53.4118	87.5397	0.0012	1.9048	19.3474	2.8571	0.0161	0.0384	13.8612	0.8584
2026-03-17	62.1156	3.5714	52.3079	85.6349	0.0011	1.4286	19.4352	3.2540	0.0161	0.0379	14.0109	0.8421

Structured Output JSON

{
  "signal_id": "metals_comparative_signal",
  "as_of_date": "2026-03-17",
  "signals": {
    "relative_value": [
      {
        "name": "Silver_vs_Gold",
        "status": "Overvalued",
        "signal": -1.0,
        "rolling_percentile": 96.5079365079365
      },
      {
        "name": "Silver_vs_Platinum",
        "status": "Overvalued",
        "signal": -1.0,
        "rolling_percentile": 97.6984126984127
      },
      {
        "name": "Silver_vs_Copper",
        "status": "Overvalued",
        "signal": -1.0,
        "rolling_percentile": 97.53968253968253
      },
      {
        "name": "Silver_vs_Oil",
        "status": "Overvalued",
        "signal": -1.0,
        "rolling_percentile": 93.0952380952381
      }
    ],
    "standardisation": [
      {
        "metal": "Gold",
        "zscore": 2.4875456889105276,
        "signal": "STRONG SELL",
        "confidence": 1.0
      },
      {
        "metal": "Silver",
        "zscore": 2.764125678522578,
        "signal": "STRONG SELL",
        "confidence": 1.0
      },
      {
        "metal": "Platinum",
        "zscore": 2.541398435129441,
        "signal": "STRONG SELL",
        "confidence": 1.0
      },
      {
        "metal": "Palladium",
        "zscore": 1.803035271948628,
        "signal": "STRONG SELL",
        "confidence": 0.901517635974314
      },
      {
        "metal": "Copper",
        "zscore": 2.116993339128005,
        "signal": "STRONG SELL",
        "confidence": 1.0
      },
      {
        "metal": "Aluminium",
        "zscore": 3.506037207382759,
        "signal": "STRONG SELL",
        "confidence": 1.0
      },
      {
        "metal": "Zinc",
        "zscore": 0.2959372758622806,
        "signal": "HOLD",
        "confidence": 0.1479686379311403
      }
    ]
  },
  "composite_signal": {
    "relative_value_layer": -1.0,
    "standardisation_layer": -1.0,
    "momentum_layer": 0.5,
    "momentum_3m": 0.3141683783340212,
    "usd_strength": "neutral",
    "macro_adjustment_factor": 1.0,
    "score_pre_macro": -0.775,
    "score": -0.775,
    "regime": "Strong Outflow Bias"
  }
}