Weekly Hours Signal

Weekly hours signal: tracking average working hours as an indicator of labour demand.

As of 2026-01-24

Gemini Summary

Signal Summary:

  • The Weekly Hours signal (1) for December 2025 indicates a NEUTRAL regime, reflecting stable labor demand. Both total private and manufacturing hours show minimal recent change. Conviction Band: Low, Interpretation Confidence: High Confidence, Internal Conflict Flag: No.

Key Dynamics:

  • Total private average weekly hours were 34.2 and manufacturing hours were 39.9 as of 2025-12-01.
  • The 3-month composite change in hours is marginally negative at -0.05, while the composite level z-score is near zero at -0.067, indicating stability.
  • This stability keeps the signal firmly within the NEUTRAL regime, defined by the composite z-score being between -0.75 and +0.75.
  • Conditional Invalidation: A sustained move of the Hours_Level_Composite_z above +0.75 or below -0.75 would invalidate the current NEUTRAL interpretation.

Scenario Balance:

  • Base Case dominant: Continued neutral labor demand, reflecting equilibrium in average working hours.
  • Upside secondary: A rebound in 3-month change momentum, particularly in manufacturing, could push the signal towards "Hot."
  • Downside residual: A notable deceleration in both private and manufacturing hours, moving the composite z-score into negative territory, suggesting a "Cool" regime.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

  • Time Horizon: Cyclical (months), as firms adjust hours before headcount, making it a forward-looking indicator for near-term labor market shifts.
  • Aggregation Weight Hint: Medium, given its leading nature for employment trends and its stable, high-confidence reading.

Macro Relevance:

  • Macro dimension informed: Labour demand, slack, and overall business cycle health.
  • Cycle position: Suggests a mid-cycle or stable phase where labor demand is neither rapidly expanding nor contracting.
  • Typical interaction with other macro signals: Often correlates with broader employment metrics like nonfarm payrolls (2), consumer sentiment (3), and industrial production (4).

Data & References:

  • Total Private: Average Weekly Hours (SA) (BLS CES0500000002), Manufacturing: Average Weekly Hours (SA) (BLS CES3000000002); latest observation 2025-12-01.
  • The 'Weekly_Hours_Regime' and 'Hours_Level_Composite_z' were most influential in determining the current stable state.
  • Additional public datasets: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment sub-index.

Weekly Hours Signal Chart

Signal chart

Weekly hours: average working hours as a labour demand indicator.

Weekly Hours Signal Table▸
total_private_hours manufacturing_hours total_hours_chg_3m mfg_hours_chg_3m Hours_Change_3m_Composite Hours_Change_3m_Composite_ma3 total_hours_z mfg_hours_z Hours_Level_Composite_z Hours_Level_Composite_Smoothed Hours_Level_Composite_0_100 Weekly_Hours_Regime
date
2024-10-01 34.3 39.9 0.1 -0.1 -3.552714e-15 -8.333333e-02 -0.337245 -0.337245 -3.372454e-01 -0.322423 50.0 NEUTRAL
2024-11-01 34.3 40.1 0.0 0.1 5.000000e-02 -3.333333e-02 -0.192712 0.337245 7.226687e-02 -0.125078 50.0 NEUTRAL
2024-12-01 34.2 40.1 0.0 0.1 5.000000e-02 3.333333e-02 -0.539593 0.385423 -7.708466e-02 -0.101081 50.0 NEUTRAL
2025-01-01 34.1 40.0 -0.2 0.1 -5.000000e-02 1.666667e-02 -0.770847 0.000000 -3.854233e-01 -0.243252 50.0 NEUTRAL
2025-02-01 34.2 40.1 -0.1 0.0 -5.000000e-02 -1.666667e-02 -0.539593 0.385423 -7.708466e-02 -0.160169 50.0 NEUTRAL
2025-03-01 34.3 40.2 0.1 0.1 1.000000e-01 1.184238e-15 0.000000 0.770847 3.854233e-01 0.112627 50.0 NEUTRAL
2025-04-01 34.3 40.1 0.2 0.1 1.500000e-01 6.666667e-02 0.000000 0.539593 2.697963e-01 0.191212 50.0 NEUTRAL
2025-05-01 34.3 40.1 0.1 0.0 5.000000e-02 1.000000e-01 0.000000 0.674491 3.372454e-01 0.264229 50.0 NEUTRAL
2025-06-01 34.2 40.1 -0.1 -0.1 -1.000000e-01 3.333333e-02 -0.674491 0.674491 2.392531e-14 0.132114 50.0 NEUTRAL
2025-07-01 34.3 40.2 0.0 0.1 5.000000e-02 0.000000e+00 0.000000 1.348982 6.744908e-01 0.403303 50.0 NEUTRAL
2025-08-01 34.2 40.0 -0.1 -0.1 -1.000000e-01 -5.000000e-02 -0.674491 0.000000 -3.372454e-01 0.033029 50.0 NEUTRAL
2025-09-01 34.2 40.0 0.0 -0.1 -5.000000e-02 -3.333333e-02 -0.674491 0.000000 -3.372454e-01 -0.152108 50.0 NEUTRAL
2025-10-01 34.2 40.0 -0.1 -0.2 -1.500000e-01 -1.000000e-01 -0.674491 0.000000 -3.372454e-01 -0.244677 50.0 NEUTRAL
2025-11-01 34.3 40.1 0.1 0.1 1.000000e-01 -3.333333e-02 0.000000 0.337245 1.686227e-01 -0.038027 50.0 NEUTRAL
2025-12-01 34.2 39.9 0.0 -0.1 -5.000000e-02 -3.333333e-02 -0.337245 -1.011736 -6.744908e-01 -0.356259 50.0 NEUTRAL
Methodology: Weekly Hours Signal