Crude Oil - Individual Market Analysis

CoT signals and diagnostics for Crude Oil futures.

As of Unknown

Gemini Summary

Signal Summary:

  • The WTI Financial Crude Oil signal (latest: 2026-01-20) shows hedgers maintaining a significant net short position, though their deep short pressure has eased (1). Speculative net contracts are reported as zero, which conflicts with a high bullish z-score and a 100% COT index (1).
  • This signal is currently stable but clouded by data contradictions, leading to Low Conviction, Low Confidence, and an Internal Conflict Flag of Yes.

Key Dynamics:

  • Hedgers remain net short at -14.58% of Open Interest (z-score -0.66), with their pressure regime shifting from "Deep_Short" to "Neutral" (1).
  • The 4-week flow indicates a strong "Long_Build" (0.76), suggesting underlying buying momentum (1).
  • A material internal conflict exists: speculative net contracts are zero, but the speculative z-score is 1.61 and the COT index for speculators is 100, implying extreme bullish positioning (1).
  • Conditional Invalidation: Resolution of the data inconsistency regarding speculative net positioning (zero contracts vs. extreme z-score) would clarify the signal's true direction.

Scenario Balance:

  • Base case dominant; risks balanced. The conflicting speculative data prevents a clear directional bias or outweighing of risks.

Time Horizon & Aggregation:

  • Time Horizon: Tactical (weeks). CoT data provides weekly updates on positioning shifts (1).
  • Aggregation Weight Hint: Low. The internal data inconsistency significantly reduces its reliability for composite macro aggregation.

Macro Relevance:

  • Macro dimension informed: Positioning (speculative and hedger), Sentiment.
  • Cycle position: Cannot be determined reliably due to the data issues.
  • Typical interaction: CoT signals usually reflect market sentiment and potential turning points, informing broader commodity and inflation views when coherent.

Data & References:

  • WTI Financial Crude Oil - New York Mercantile Exchange CoT data, latest observation date 2026-01-20 (1).
  • The `Spec_Net_Contracts` (0), `Spec_zscore` (1.61), and `COT_Index_Spec` (100) are most influential, highlighting a critical data discrepancy (1).
  • Additional public datasets: Daily WTI Crude Oil futures prices (e.g., from EIA or FRED) to contextualize positioning with price action.

Crude Oil CoT Diagnostics Chart

Signal chart

Crude Oil futures: CoT diagnostics, positioning, crowding, reversal risk, and price overlay.

Crude Oil CoT Signals Table▸
Report_Date Market_and_Exchange_Names Spec_Net_%OI Hedger_Net_%OI Spec_zscore Hedger_zscore Flow_4w controller controller_gap_%OI spec_extreme_1y hedger_extreme_1y any_extreme_1y extreme_side flow_4w_label flow_4w_strength crowded_long crowded_short squeeze_risk exhaustion_risk hedger_pressure_regime bullish_reversal_risk bearish_reversal_risk reversal_regime market_structure_regime positioning_tension_score risk_flags_count synthetic_state CFTC_Contract_Market_Code CFTC_Market_Code CFTC_Region_Code CFTC_Commodity_Code Commodity_Class Commodity_SubClass Region_Class COT_Index_Spec Spec_Net_Contracts Hedger_Net_Contracts hedger_pressure specs_vs_hedgers_divergence source Market and Exchange Names CFTC Contract Market Code CFTC Region Code CFTC Commodity Code hedger_deep_short hedger_deep_long reversal_score Price
197 2025-10-14 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE -1.289149 -10.792733 -0.058232 -0.117044 0.202266 Hedgers -9.503584 False False False None Long_Build 0.202266 False False False False Hedgers_Neutral False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Covering 0.058812 0 Normal 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 38.468091 -2070 -17330 False False disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN False False 0 69.000000
198 2025-10-21 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE -1.273243 -11.160865 -0.037234 -0.218504 0.199076 Hedgers -9.887622 False False False None Long_Build 0.199076 False False False False Hedgers_Neutral False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Covering 0.181270 0 Normal 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 39.227319 -2070 -18145 False False disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN False False 0 68.269997
199 2025-10-28 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE -1.124051 -12.474380 0.155913 -0.585360 0.280508 Hedgers -11.350329 False False False None Long_Build 0.280508 False False False False Hedgers_Neutral False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Covering 0.741272 0 Normal 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 46.348348 -1914 -21241 False False disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN False False 0 71.389999
200 2025-11-04 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE -0.891370 -13.425257 0.457192 -0.842927 0.404632 Hedgers -12.533887 False False False None Long_Build 0.404632 False False False False Hedgers_Neutral False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Covering 1.300118 0 Normal 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 57.454364 -1450 -21839 False False disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN False False 0 71.930000
201 2025-11-10 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE -0.825746 -15.637331 0.536907 -1.432231 0.463404 Hedgers -14.811585 False False False None Long_Build 0.463404 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Short False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Covering 1.969138 0 Normal 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 60.586639 -1354 -25641 True False disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN True False 0 71.680000
202 2025-11-18 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE -0.733352 -14.242076 0.650870 -1.010371 0.539890 Hedgers -13.508724 False False False None Long_Build 0.539890 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Short False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Covering 1.661241 0 Normal 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 64.996630 -1258 -24431 True False disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN True False 0 72.500000
203 2025-11-25 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE -0.712191 -14.913552 0.668966 -1.171518 0.411860 Hedgers -14.201361 False False False None Long_Build 0.411860 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Short False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Covering 1.840485 0 Normal 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 66.006674 -1258 -26343 True False disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN True False 0 69.250000
204 2025-12-02 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE -0.593839 -18.323374 0.815574 -2.024698 0.297531 Hedgers -17.729534 False True True Hedger_Extreme_Short Long_Build 0.297531 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Short False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Covering 2.840272 1 High_Tension_Low_Flags 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 71.655688 -950 -29313 True False disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN True False 0 70.199997
205 2025-12-09 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE -0.648686 -19.368604 0.728982 -2.172686 0.177060 Hedgers -18.719919 False True True Hedger_Extreme_Short Long_Build 0.177060 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Short False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Covering 2.901667 1 High_Tension_Low_Flags 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 69.037821 -1058 -31590 True False disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN True False 0 69.860001
206 2025-12-16 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE -0.634061 -16.922468 0.737402 -1.478537 0.099292 Hedgers -16.288408 False False False None Long_Build 0.099292 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Short False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Covering 2.215938 0 High_Tension_Low_Flags 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 69.735885 -1058 -28237 True False disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN True False 0 66.169998
207 2025-12-23 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE -0.762800 -16.826775 0.552680 -1.410393 -0.050609 Hedgers -16.063975 False False False None Long_Reduction -0.050609 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Short False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Adding_Short 1.963073 0 Normal 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 63.591074 -1334 -29427 True False disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN True False 0 70.300003
208 2025-12-30 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE -0.740605 -16.136751 0.575973 -1.203331 -0.146766 Hedgers -15.396146 False False False None Long_Reduction -0.146766 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Short False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Adding_Short 1.779304 0 Normal 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 64.650456 -1334 -29066 True False disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN True False 0 69.739998
209 2026-01-06 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE 0.000000 -19.122847 1.610793 -1.873653 0.648686 Hedgers -19.122847 False False False None Long_Build 0.648686 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Short False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Covering 3.484446 0 High_Tension_Low_Flags 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 100.000000 0 -29366 True True disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN True False 0 68.510002
210 2026-01-13 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE 0.000000 -15.893910 1.610793 -1.021977 0.634061 Hedgers -15.893910 False False False None Long_Build 0.634061 False False False False Hedgers_Deep_Short False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Covering 2.632770 0 High_Tension_Low_Flags 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 100.000000 0 -25936 True True disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN True False 0 73.480003
211 2026-01-20 WTI FINANCIAL CRUDE OIL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE 0.000000 -14.576606 1.610793 -0.655826 0.762800 Hedgers -14.576606 False False False None Long_Build 0.762800 False False False False Hedgers_Neutral False False No_Clear_Reversal Hedger_Covering 2.266618 0 High_Tension_Low_Flags 06765A NYME 1.0 67.0 Other Unknown Other / Unknown 100.000000 0 -24826 False False disaggregated NaN NaN NaN NaN False False 0 71.860001
Methodology: Crude Oil CoT Signals